We sold are 2014 calf crop yesterday, the entire group averaged 510 pounds and brought $2.50 per pound or $1275.00 per calf. This is the highest price we have ever got in history. Any of you cattleman think these kind of prices are here to stay for while or will the market correct itself? I know beef is high in the store but the consumers & world market cant seem to get enough of it. From what I read the US cow herd is still at a 50-year low, anyone got comments on when this cow herd will get into the expansion mode?
I may give up hamburgers and start eating gasoline...
Remember the reason the cow herd is at 50 year lows is because the last round of low prices broke all of the weaker players in the market. That removed the oversupply, and now the result is a price spike. Now many people are hearing of the money to be made in cows, and the herds will rise quickly to meet demand. there may be a year or two of good money before the oversupply comes around again, then the price will drop like a rock. The problem is that when the market price corrects, it does not go to the proper level, but it overshoots by a large margin, and that either enriches the survivors, or on the downside, wipes out all but the strong. Then the price comes back to reality for a while, but the seeds of the next move are already sown.
The cure to high cattle prices is high cattle prices...
I agree with what Jerry said. Seems to be the norm in some markets now a days. Just look at oil.
I think that the cost of hay and the recent droughts in the Southwest may have had some impact on herd numbers as well in the past few years.
No cattleman here, but if I remember right a cow has one calf a year, and that calf takes two years to produce it's own calf, so it takes basically three years to double the number of producing cows (accounting for bull calves). Guessing the industry WENT into expansion at the first hint of $3 corn, I'd guess the prices will really drop in two years (demand is not always as important as sentiment).
Makes perfect sense to me, fuel prices came down so it is time to raise food prices, keeping my wallet about as thick as it was six months ago.
Prices here reached 15 yr lows last year, thanks to ongoing drought and record slaughter levels,(it's better to sell em than smell em) Now, with the drought bent if not broken, cattle are in short supply and prices have been heading north. Still, we can only dream about the prices you guys are enjoying. At the moment we're getting around the same money per kilo that you are getting per pound, roughly about half, without factoring in exchange rates. As you say JBGASH, there is excellent demand for beef from around the world so we are looking forward to at least a few good years. Cheers, Greg
Thanks to all for the responses. Timing will be important with this market for me, for I am somewhat more optimistic that the bull market will stay around for a while. Me and my son in law went to a special cow sale and purchased 34- 3-4year old bred cows in the 3rd period that start calving March 1 for $2455 per head. At this ridiculous figure I thought I had lost my mind for a minute and then reality set in. It was quite a cow sale with over 1100 head that brought anywhere from $2000 to $3200 per head. Seems as though everyone there came to buy with very few non buyers. If the market heads hard south it will be very painfull owning these expensive momma cows. Ken- I agree completely with your comment, that the cure for high prices is high prices, but in this case I hope they stay high for while...
Cow numbers will never be what they was in the past but anyone who thinks this will go on forever is a fool. We are going to price ourselves out of the market. When those people leave it's not easy to get them back. When is the last time any of us ate lamb? One chicken can put more meat on the table in a year than a cow. Before you call BS do the math. 180 eggs a year that's putting a 9 to 10 pound chicken out the door. A 600 house chicken complex is like replacing 250,000 cows. That's why chicken is cheaper than beef and that's where part of our market is going to end up. IMO
The math on hogs is pretty close to chickens as well (just a little harder to shrink wrap maybe?). Both follow the corn price more or less quickly. Cattle have a bit more lag. Sheep are weird, really too small a market to be significant. In the East they can average twins and lamb at a year, but there's other factors than corn price. I haven't been West in 20+ years, don't even know if there's any sheep left. I ate a lot of mutton in my life. Ever try Alpaca?-I don't think beef is going out of style anytime soon.
Beef will never go out of style, it will always be the premier food. At this price it is a luxury for a lot of Americans. That's not good. If the bottom 25% just eat chicken one extra serving a week that's a lot of beef taken out of the food chain. What bothers me is most of the time a person eats what they was raised on. With these high beef prices we could have an entire generation that prefers chicken. Lamb had a good market until it got two high to buy. I would guess most people under 30 have never tried it. I'm glad someone knows what to do with a fat sucking 500 bull calf at $1,250.00 to $1,500.00 each because they are a lot smarter than anyone I know. Take their money and invest it wisely
One thing that has effected the recent spike in prices is the world market. Russia cancelled all their beef (along with produce and grain ) orders from the EU in retaliation for the trade sanctions that were imposed after the Ukraine invasion. European beef prices are currently down. Russia is buying from Turkey and Latin America right now. Once Russia starts buying from Europe again, Latin American beef is going to be in oversupply. Food for thought.
As a cattle producer in northeast Texas, most of the price spike has come from the droughts in the southwest over the past few years which reduced herd numbers dramatically. Hay was scarce all over Texas causing huge selloffs as we couldn't feed them paying $60-80 per bale when it could be found. Packing plants around Amarillo were shutting down last year and before as they couldn't get enough supply to keep working. With these top to bottom herd reductions or complete liquidations, there are not enough animals to meet the demand. Simple supply and demand economics. As long as people are willing to pay at the grocery store and supply remains tight, prices at the barn will stay good. Ranching dependent people stayed in and hung on are rebuilding their herds, and high prices are attracting opportunists or those who sold out back in, but keeping replacement heifers to grow a herd takes a lot of time and supply out of the market. Industry experts say this will take a few years to happen and in the mean time, those of us with calves to sell are doing well. We certainly don't want to go back to getting $1.50 per pound and trying to make expenses let alone any profit. Chicken is good and I eat a lot of it, but yardbird can't compete with some good barbecue, a juicy burger, or a good tender steak.
The meat industry keeps feeding animals the GMO grains they'll kill off a fair chunk of their market eventually, that will affect pricing some... might take a few more years, but it will happen, I'm pretty sure. :my2c
Same with hybrid grains, I want my meat fed only spelt and quinoa Sorry, that's disagreeing with you lantraxco. There's grassfed meat out there if you want it, but most people who have tried REAL grassfed meat don't like it, it's not what they're used to.
I don't have a problem with hybrids, it's just a sped up natural process. splicing insect genes into a plant so it creates it's own pesticide internally kinda gives me the willies (No offense Willie59) and the other artificial constructs may be affecting the human body's immune system, even if it's only used as animal feed. Same goes for milk and other dairy products. I'm no enviro nut, but anytime a mega corp is making billions off a process I'm a little bit suspicious. Cheers :beatsme
There's grassfed meat out there if you want it, but most people who have tried REAL grassfed meat don't like it, it's not what they're used to. I have to say this is a true statement. We eat beef at least twice a week, mainly grilled over a gas flame. Our local Heinens started carrying a grass fed line of products. I tried twice and the wife won't do it a third time. I could adapt but the extra price and the wife have steered me away. No pun intended.
Yair . . . Multiracer . So natural 'grass-fed' is more expensive than 'grain-fed' in the US? Here in Australia it is the opposite . . . but of course we don't have the grain production that you folks have. To me grain fed is an acquired taste and is pretty much off the menu. Cheers.
Scrub, Grain fed is how they fatten them up for the sale, pack them full of corn to add weight, as of course they sell by the pound. It adds fat, which makes for a moister more flavorful cut of meat usually. If they would just switch them back to hay for a couple weeks before slaughter we'd have a lot less E-coli problems, but no, the industry would rather treat the hamburger with liquid and gaseous ammonia to kill it, and I think some of the steaks get gamma radiation from Cobalt-60 or the like. Fun stuff this science..... :beatsme
Yair . . . thanks lantraxco . Same thing happens here with feedlots but on a smaller scale than in the US . . . I was just surprised by Multiracer's comment that grass fed was the more expensive meat. Cheers.
This thread is full of great comments like most of this site, from people who understand how their markets work. I would like to add my agreement to the above from the consumer standpoint. Beef is now a luxury for me. When my wife and I laid out budgets in the beginning of our marriage we decided the price point for meats would be $1/lb for bone-in meats such as roasts and whole chickens and $2/lb for cuts that were low in waste such as tri tip and boneless chicken breasts, etc. These were reasonable price points at the time and I expect they might be again some day but all the prices are interrelated to some degree and with beef and pork being high that lifts chicken to some degree, though it is usually the most affordable. Now the years have gone by and we eat beans a lot more often than we used to.
Scrub, Around here anything with a label that states, Grass fed, free range, organic or anything out of the ordinary package is a bump in price. Same goes for the chicken products.
Yair . . . Gotcha Multiracer . . . the difference in our countries used to be that here "grass fed" was the normal and "grain fed" was the expensive cut. I must say though that it is not so much these days and folks have embraced the grain fed concept. Cheers.
Not directly related to beef prices but related none the less. A good friend of mine has a small herd and is getting more into the cattle business. We were talking last night about his recent bull he bought. I didn't know this even existed, his bull came with a genetics report that estimated the fat content of the rib eyes and other choice cuts the bulls genes would produce. I find it fascinating the science that goes into breeding and the genetics of modern beef producers. I'm looking for pasture land, not to get rich on cows but learn the process raising them - (I'm in construction that's enough risk )..lol
We have been doing embryo transfer where you flush a really good cow and bull then put those embryos in a different cheaper cow. We got 13 embryos out of a flush the other day.
We call them estimated breeding values (ebv), where bulls are given a score for particular traits which you can use to select a sire to improve these traits in your herd. Still need to give them the old eyeball assessment though. The beef industry is no different from many others these days, using technology to find gains in efficiency and quality. I imagine prices of grazing land there have risen along with cattle prices. Cheers, Greg
Queenslander, here in the US we call them EPD's or "Expected progeny differences". Lantraxco, On the GMO grains, in the Midwest most of all the corn & soybean production is now GMO, in addition, if there are any non GMO grains produced and delivered at the local elevators, they do not separate it from GMO, so it is mixed together basically. Roddyo, On that fat sucking 500# calf at $1250-1500.00 thought, it was sure nice to get that nice check, unfortunately it is not a get rich quick thing, a lot of cost as you well know went in to producing that calf. Also for the many years we cattle producers were selling our product below our cost of production to help "insure a cheap and bountiful food supply" nobody ever said a word or offered in help.
JBGASH, No government subsidies to help a cattle farmer out during those times you speak of ?
Multiracer, no subsidies that I am aware of for the cattle industry, other than the USDA drought assistance programs that have been around for years when the feed sources are threatened or get in short supply. I have heard that the 2014 farm bill may have some provisions in it for the livestock producers but have not checked into it yet.
I never said selling calves for big money is a bad thing Cow/Calf producers very seldom get to sit in the drivers seat and By God are they driving now What I am saying is good times break more people than bad times. When this thing corrects a lot of optimists are going to find their *** in the wringer. It's awful hard in this market to buy something to make money and limit your exposure when it goes away. Who would have thought good bred broke mouth cows at a dollar a pound would be the deal of the day?
OK, So what do you fellas call a broke mouth cow - cast for age perhaps? Cheers, Greg
Around here cows at the auction are aged to 7 then called SS for short and solid or O for old. An old cow could be a SS missing a tooth or not have a tooth in her head. That's a judgement call you have to make based on her condition. When you get them home you get to grade your homework Brokemouth is slang for an old cow. We have been turning a few out to finish the loads. It's hard buying a load of thin stock cows to turn out and graze. The trucking is the same if the truck is full or half full so.....If this thing holds together it should be a good money maker. With this market weighing them up every year looks better than locking yourself in a multiyear deal like replacement heifers. JMO
Yeah, we might be in the same industry but when it comes to terminology we may as well be from different planets! I guess we would call them store cows. We don't sell store cows but plenty here do. We put our old and cull cows aside, away from a bull, until they are fat then sell them direct to meatworks. (packers?) Most cow meat here goes to the US to be made into hamburgers and the like. So if you pay $1/lb for your thin stock cows, what sort of price would you expect when you turn them off? Cheers, Greg
Queenslander, Packers is the term we use that would be the same as your term meatworks. Slaughter / cull cows are bringing around a $1.00 per pound at present. Cattle that have been fed out in a feedlot to appox 1250-1400 pounds are bringing around $1.60 / pound
Here in my part of Texas we had several years of drought 2011 being the worst. I had to sell 40% of my herd,cow calf business is not something you get in and out of. It has cycles up and down you gotta stick with it. That said I sold some steers last week they avg. 500# @ $2.65 but prices are falling. Kept enough heifers to increase heard by 33%, but it will be 2 years before they show any income. We eat grass fed beef as well, eat the best sell the rest my philosophy.
I know it's pointless comparing prices, but still interesting none the less. We grow our steers out to about 450kg-1000lb, feedlot entry weight, here, for steers bound for Japanese or E.U. Markets. These cattle, Santas, are making around $2.70/kg at the moment, but rising weekly. Fat cows to the works, around $2.20/kg, about $1/lb. Hope to sell some in a couple of weeks if I can get them out. After two years drought, it's now too wet. Cheers, Greg
guest, I was wandering just how many other Texas producers had to sell off their cow herds like yourself due to those droughts? Was it a statewide thing or certain areas/pockets of the state? This has a huge impact on the numbers of cattle in the future due to Texas being the largest cow/calf producing state in the nation with Missouri coming in 2nd in the rank. Was wandering what good grass hay is costing in Texas too?
Everyone in my area culled cows probably 20% sold out completely ,round bales of good hay was selling over $100. I kept mine alive with $75 milo stubble and cubes. The whole state was affected south Texas was worse, a lot of people no only had no grass, but had to haul water to stock that gets old quick. Good hay this year is about $65 for a 6x5 bale. I have about $50 a bale in fertilizer, weed poison, land taxes on hay field and baling. Good hay is not cheap I cut mine on 28 day cycle for maximum protein and digestibility got 3 years worth 2 in barns 1 outside that I am feeding now.
Lots of people in this area sold all their stock and sent their hay to Texas and other drought areas the last few years. It did not make any sense to feed cows all winter when hay was selling for $75 to $80 a bale loaded on the purchasers truck. Now hay price is down to 1/3 of that and cows are expensive. There is a lot of whining going on that they wish they could get some reasonable priced cows.
old-iron, I hear you loud and clear, but the word "reasonable" is out the door with this bull cattle market.
Last week a friend told me that his neigbor sold all his cows because he belives the market is going to change. I eat lunch some times with 2 farmers that only have cows and one had took some to market and they sold low. The next time we meet up the other one got a call from his son that had just sold some cows and he was very disaponted in what they brought. Yes like others have said the drought had some here selling off some off their cows. They have build several chicken house around here in the last 6 month.
Old Doug, I have sold off my cow herd in the past 2- different times with the thought that the cattle market was going to collapse, each time it cost me big and was a huge mistake along with me being completely wrong in my decision. I then decided to stay in through thick and thin and go the duration, so far after several years that has been working, but time will tell. One thing is for sure the market will come down sometime but my plan is to make the best of it while it is here & highly profitable and then be ready to weather the storm when it arrives.
Here in Australia lamb is cheep well goat is anyway I can buy a whole goat for $50 cut him up and stick in the freezer. Bambi cost me an hours drive and a 223 bullet and it's not bad chewing. Barra comes free from the water just a bit of fuel in the tinny and it's good chewing to. Butt nothin beats BEEF now one of my observations is the price of beef at the butcher shop seems to have absolutely nothing to do with the price that the cocky gets at the works if the cocky is gettin bugger all the pice of beef is still expensive if the cocky is dancing all the way to the bank the price of beef in the butcher shop stays the same. So can anybody explain that . But even so when u look at the price of mince and snag and then look at the amount of tucker u get from such things it's still cheap. Even the price of steak u can buy a whole round of rump $60 and they will even slice it in front of u and put so manny steaks per freezer bag for u now u work out how manny meals u can get out of it is still cheap. Sorry I just don't get it
OK, You gotta explain to us webfooted northlanders what Barra is. I'm thinking it does not grow under the ice.
Ha ha ha ha lol sorry mate a barra is a barramundi it's a fish common to Northern Australia both fresh and salt water variety's all through our water sustems up here one rule supersedes all outhers where there's barra there's crock's.
You should forget about driving dozers and go get a job with MLA promoting Aussie beef.
Na mate I turned my back on the beef industry in my late teens I can't make it pay no mater witch way I slice it
Cam85, What is the price of hamburger in grocery store in Austraila? How does it compare to pork or chicken there?
I am a Ag Extension Agent and just based off the projection from our specialists they see that the price going to stay stable for now due to the return that the buyers are getting. They found out last year that they could go in the hole at the high prices they paid. I would keep a close eye on the corn market because with all the information I have seen the corn price greatly effects the cattle prices. If corn starts to rise I would look for a decrease in cattle prices. Right now corn is below $4 with no rise in sight and that means cattle will stay high in my opinion.
Not really a subsidy here........but I know some ranchers are using Livestock gross margin insurance to help manage the risks. Same sort of thing they got now on the fed level for dairy.......(Milk margin protection program)
So far I haven't seen much discussion about this..... but one thing that is not mentioned is that in China (if I have my facts straight) they have loosened their stance on one child families. I know in the Dairy industry some are gearing up for huge amts of milk to be dried and turned into infant formula. Moving down the line a few more years, as those kids get older..............what are they gonna eat? sure a lot will be other meats, but even so beef will be along for the ride. A Little history last summer I was getting around 250 per week old bull calf by December I was getting around 330 for the same sized animal...........next Thurs I'm planning on selling another lot and from what I've heard, (salesbarn office) the market is not off as much as what some of the fear mongers are claiming. time will tell I guess.
Btree, I agree with you on the cattle prices. The 2015 corn market looks bleak, barring a wet spring or a severe 2015 drought issue. The massive size of the 2014 crop (largest crop in history) is going to take a while to get rid of, even with our ethanol plants running at full capacity. We in the Midwest & corn belt have all grain elevators chuck full, massive on farm storage bins full & huge 1-million bushel piles of outside stored corn setting everywhere. What surprises me is the corn market being as high as it is, with this huge amount of corn to work through.
I think the only reason the price has stabilized is the fact that our exports are still strong. On top of that we all know that the cure for low priced corn is low priced corn. With the price the way it is the acres planted are going to be way down. In Georgia we are looking at about half or less that what we saw planted two years ago. If acres keep going down across the county we may see a price rebound in 2016. For this year I think everyone is just going to try and keep their head above water and out of the red.
Definitely something in the wind Monte. It's a long story, but the dairy industry in Qld has been decimated over a long period of time by market deregulation and other factors. However some big players have been buying up large parcels of choice land with the intention of setting up mega dairies to supply the Chinese market. Australia has recently signed a free trade agreement with China to ultimately supply up to one million head of live cattle per year. Cheers, Greg
Update: Sold that lot of bull calves this week averaged $420 per head average for calves two to three weeks old............just sayin. I guess you guys can take that info for what it's worth. Seems the market just got a little bit stronger for baby bull calves.......
Yair . . . JBGASH I see Cam85 didn't get back to you on this one . . . . I take "hamburger" to mean ground beef (what we call "mince") and at the high volume butchery in our local town current price is three dollars eighteen cents a pound, ground pork, lamb and chicken runs around fifty cents more. In chain stores and smaller butcheries it could be considerably more . . . I just took the kilogram prices and divided by 2.2. Cheers.
Scrub, Thanks, here in the US beef is the most expensive meat of the those three. It is very surprising to me that pork, lamb & chicken are higher than beef there. That is a good thing for the Down Under cattlemen and prolly helpful to us US cattlemen too.
Beef is cheaper here because the prices have been so low... This is what we got in February this year, all weights are carcass weights... Code: Category Summary Bodies Tot Wgt Avg Wgt(kg) Avg Val Avg $/Kg OX 37.0 12946.5 349.9 $1552.99 4.44 This is what we got exactly two years ago Category Summary Bodies Tot Wgt Avg Wgt(kg) Avg Val Avg $/Kg OX 24.0 8415.0 350.6 $990.04 2.82 We have just gone through a rather protracted beef depression..
.RC. Hopefully, prices can only improve in the future. Plans for another new major processing facility at Toowoomba sound encouraging. I just pray that our Fed. Govt. has enough nous not to upset our northern neighbours over recent events. Cheers, Greg
back in 2012 I had 120 acres of grass and no cattle. I hauled semi loads of hay to Texas. And I bought a couple dozen skinny texas cows that where bred for $450 each. I sold the calf crop twice for more than I paid for the cows. and then I sold the cows the cheapest one brought $1475. I have two cows left a JerseyXangus and a holstienXangus . The price wont hold. everyone is keeping hefers. And folks are being weaned from beef. Pork is filling the gap along with chicken. I give it three years and the market will fall below profit level. I don't eat beef. Grass fed isn't very good. and feedlot beef is full of growth hormones and the chemicals needed to keep them alive from the myrad of diseasesthey get in close confinement. I eat home grown chicken, tame rabbit, potbelly pig, young goat and lots of deer.
Yair . . . Old Junk Man. Sounds like some real good eating right there . . . I must say I do enjoy grass fed beef though, especially a brisket slow smoked in the drum or on the Weber. (big grin and a drool) Cheers.
Since the stock market has turned sour the cattle prices have fallen a bit. the goat & sheep prices have gone up a bit at the auction at Koskonog Mo.
Cattle prices continue to climb over here.... although still not at the lofty highs enjoyed being enjoyed by our American friends. One example of how quickly things are moving is the Queensland cattle marketing index which provides a daily snapshot of all the markets around the state. Started in1985 with a base score of 100 points, it took 30 years to, consistently, reach 200 but only another 6 months get to 300. Currently around 330 and showing no signs of stopping any time soon.
Financial piece on how the downturn may be starting: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nner-anymore-as-americans-devour-cheaper-pork
Feeder cattle prices really took a hit this past week. below $2 per pound. some hefers sold a $1.40 at Pocahontas last week. Bred cows and cow calf pairs still where high.
Yes the trend was a lot lower 4-6 weights steers & heifers were $10-20.00 per hundred lower. Still at profitable levels but compared to last year appox $100 per calf less income...
Funny I remember this thread after all these years, I thought it had been ongoing. But I am going to post to it anyway. Things sure have gotten interesting.
In 2015 my calfs avg. #510 @ $2.65 = $1350 a head. Last week sale market report #400 to #500 sold for $1.00 to $1.60 and they were up .05 So almost $800 a head difference gotta stay with threw thick or thin. Besides have to have something for this cowdog to do.
Prices here are still very good considering everything that is going on around the world. One thing that’s helping is that our national herd is the smallest it’s been for thirty years. Apparently, feeder steers here were the dearest in the world last week but the experts tell us this is unsustainable.
I think you mistyped a 2 instead of a 1 in your 2015 cattle price. United States cattle prices in 2015 averaged in the $1.50 range. 2015 carries the highest cattle price in history averaged over the twelve months. According to Dovers, the highest ever monthly cattle average was in November of 2014 at $1.69. The cattleman around here were real excited to be getting $1.50 on the hoof back then. Still your point is well taken. The price is down from previous record prices.
Yep I was mistaken best prices I got were in early 2015 my computer died lost my info Here is market report from sale barn.