Hello, I mentioned in my other post that I'm taking on a home build. We're doing this without a general, direct with the subs.... I got sideswiped by this lumber market. Anyone have any theories or predictions they care to share about the immediate future of the lumber market? We're ready to buy our lumber package anytime between now and the next few months and the prices have gone through the roof!!!
Your lucky if you can find the materials you need at this point, here in NY building materials are in very short supply and as you mentioned very expensive.
What other building materials are hard to get besides lumber?
I want to replace some windows last time i checked 2 place had them but now the said i would have to order them. There are 3 places near me 2 said 4 weeks one said a week 1 nope there right. They said prices hadnt gone up on them. I have been told treated lumber is very hard to get. My brother just did a big remodel and he had problems getting stuff. I think the framing lumber isnt a problem but the other stuff could be.
Treated lumber is in tight supply because some of the producers quit running when everything shut down due to Covid earlier this year. Our local lumber yard has treated in stock, but it all reserved for complete building packages like houses, barns, etc. If you aren't buying an entire package, you're on a waiting list.
Framing lumber prices have tripled since earlier this year. Our framing bid increased by $25K in one month. I'm about to have a heart attack or go try to smuggle in a full load from canada. j/k
A buddy was going to build he put in a driveway had the basement guy ready to go and the virus struck he backed out for now.
I track inbound lumber cars for a truss plant. The buyer told me a month ago his price has gone up 80% since April. Some waybills show the value of the load. Last car I saw was a 90% increase.
I am in the same boat. Wife and I have owned our 2 acre lot for 2 years now. We were going to break ground in March of this after the winter rains subsided and we all know what happened. Also during March we were blessed to get the largest contract in our company's history. Fast forward to last week when I started getting lumber bids - $50K increase, double what I estimated. Talking to a friends father who owns a building supply and he flat out told me that if he was in our shoes he wouldn't build right now and he makes his living selling lumber. He told us the southern yellow pine mills which supply most of the stock for framing and treated lumber normally run 3 shifts but they are only running 1 at the moment. They can't find workers to fill the shifts is the reason. Engineered wood such as I-joists are still running the same price. Actually it's cheaper at the moment to use I-Joists instead of sawn 2x SYP. Fiber cement is available as well as other non-dimensional forest products. He further told us that European dimensional lumber is hitting the US market with the prices up and that should help ease the price some. Another issue is the tariffs on Canadian lumber driving the price up in a supply poor market. The wife and I's plan is to do the site work ( we've been so busy I haven't had a machine or crew free since March), put in the foundation, basement slab and underground utilities then see where lumber prices are. If lumber is still through the roof we'll wait until it comes down as we don't have to move. The problem is a house built right now with the high lumber prices is worth the same as the one next door built a year ago. Basically pissing money away if you build right now.
Hopefully we'll get our winter time price decrease. Suppliers may also be hesitant to stock up now at record prices, because then they'll lose if prices drop.
Hava a large lumberyard near me, they serve a multistate area with their commericial accounts. They really got screwed during the pandemic shutdown, selling building materials only they had to close. Will be interesting to see what they do.. Ed
You guys are causing our prices to go up because so much lumber from Canada is going to the States! I know a few big builders here bought massive amounts of lumber before the prices hit the roof, helping making the shortage a lot worse. Other then pressure treated being in short supply, everything else is ok prices are just really high.
We’re in same boat. We need a good amount of treated wood and we’re at a stage that it’s not good to let it sit Weather wise. I guess know one has a clue when this could correct itself. Would be nice if a lumber guru could give us some inside info lol
Doing a room addition for a customer, I bought everything when the crazy increases started. They wondered why I would buy it so early, once I explained it he was quite happy.
Yep. I heard of the increase coming but unfortunately didn’t do anything about it. My own fault fosho
Lumber pricing here is NUTS IF can find decent supply. Truss orders are on backlog, some taking three months for delivery and Very Pricey at that. Local that builds barns shut his operation down for now as materials either non existent or so expensive he cannot make sales. He is only doing small rehab repairs currently.
Here in BC lumber mills are are shutting down all over and have been for a number of years now. On the coast our logs are going directly on ships to who knows where. I think this spells trouble for all of us in North America.
Same is going on here in Peoples Republic of Washington State, being shipped overseas and all lumber mills are closed except one. Still have one paper mill in Little California ( I mean PT Townsend ) but give it time it will be shut down by the Californians ( local residents ) just like all the shooting ranges.
Pulp mills down south have been closing over the years, West Monroe LA was a BIG one and I believe is down to minimal output.
I haven't heard of any mills in our area closing down and paper products are once again plentiful in our local stores.
Residential has surged here in the last year I am sure this lumber market will slow it some curbing demand but at all the material that will go to hurricane rehabs and rebuilding entire neighborhoods from fire damage its anyone's guess Here we have no lumber mills anymore just pallet yards and firewood wholesale most of our timber has been ruined for building from bug damage and years of bad forest management with drought so almost everything here comes from pac west area
Most of the trees here are made into pallets and most of them are one time use. I want to build 1 more shop and it will be 90 to 100% steel.
I'm with you, the other 10% will be of concrete for me.
Believe it or not, this thread almost makes me feel good. I was planning to have my new shop done by Christmas, and start the house right afterwards. I just found out I won't be able to start anything until April. I say almost makes me feel good, because it has been my experience that once something goes way up, it doesn't come all the way back down.
Lumber is a commodity, and like all commodities, it is very cyclical. Working for my dad years ago, I've seen lumber rocket right up in one year (2007). Prices tripled on sheeting products, framing lumber doubled, etc. During the crash in 2009, they sold for less than they did in early 2007. When I built my house in 2016, lumber prices dropped about 15% from when we priced out our framing materials to when we actually put in our order. In 2007, we had $7/bushel corn, $100+/barrel oil, and $3+ /gallon gasoline and today in 2020, corn is under $3/bushel, oil hovers around $40/barrel and I paid $1.99/gallon last night to fill up my truck. Year over year, I would expect prices to rise 2% +/- for inflation, but commodities don't always follow that model very well.
When built our place in '14/15 prices were not so bad even the steel for shop and barn siding was low. Been told same materials lists today are Double what we spent at bare minimum and on a waiting list to procure.
I know of one house being built right now, they just poured the basement (used those insulated Styrofoam forms). Will be interesting to see if the build continues. Last weekend there was no lumber on site.... Ed
I'm building a pole barn for a customer. She placed her order for materials mid August and the framing lumber arrived, as scheduled, 2 weeks later. I drive past 2 new house sites that started their excavation around first of September and both have their stacks of framing lumber already. Our local lumber yard is full, but they are prioritizing full packages over piecemeal sales.
I mentally track the price of OSB at the local Lowes Hardware. Their stack of the stuff is always right at the entrance.. With the price per sheet in a big sign. The price has cycled from $6 to (last time I checked) $28. Hurricanes, state of economy, interest rates, floods, and now riots affect the price change.
Went past the job I mentioned up thread....trusses were there. Guess its a go. Ed
I used to work with a guy that had previously worked at a mill that made OSB. He was well aware of the cyclical nature of the business. He made a fair amount of money each year in the stock market buying and selling based on the price fluctuations revolving around hurricane season.
7/16 OSB was 13 bucks a sheet here, now it's over 24. A 2x4 stud is 7 bucks. I have a cousin with his own mill, he can't keep up with orders as he is selling cheaper than the stores
I have my own portable mill, also but many places require kiln dried and graded and stamped lumber for houses. Not as big a deal for sheds and garages.
New neighbor across our Valley is regretting the use of a Portaband sawmill using his own timber to build his house. Every stick he cut for architectural show beams is twisting splitting and zipper cracking, made 2 1/2" thick stair treads and they are all bolted to control the warping, rough cut stringers he has stated can hear them pop in middle of the night.
I wanted to put a lean too on my barn this year, but I don't see that happening anytime soon with these new prices.
7/16 osb is $22 at home depot...had some projects to do this fall, ain't gonna happen. Ed
Had to have a couple 2x6 for scrap control on the 18’ trailer $65 for four Had considered building a hay shed near the barn but cost of truss and lack of 6x6 16’s then the price of the 6x6s shut that down. Red iron currently is cheaper to build.
even steel roofing. Work buddy put a steel roof on his home last year. His garage burnt through the winter. He worked through the winter on a building project and managed to throw together enough scrap lumber to build a new one. The steel had almost doubled for the roof.
You can’t buy 6 x 6’s out here at that size much less a 4 x 4 so I figure either trees or steel, I took the trees down. One and only wood structure will be here that had to be rushed is the pole barn if I can get back in time to build, major splits in the trees now but will band them on both ends
I was chatting with the gentleman who helped deliver my fill dirt. He was contacted to dig a basement for a new home earlier this year. Due to the surge in everyone refinancing the customers project was delayed 3 months. He said each month the lumber package increased by $7k. The customer still opted to complete the project even thought the lumber portion of the job will be $21k more. That's crazy talk! I would definitely hold off on any major projects. I also heard some local barn builders decided to no longer quote builds. I think they are building on material expense accounts since the lumber process fluctuate so much.
The same thing happened to steel when Trump put the tariffs on steel. I was pricing roll off bins for a client back then and the makers would not quote a price unless the bin was ordered and they could place the steel order at that moment.