Apparently, there is a shortage of new cars and equipment because of shortage of computer parts. Used cars are up 5o percent. Used equipment up 20 percent? Is this a bad time to buy used mini excavator for hobby farm? I'd be buying something pretty junky. Not something suitable to use in a business.
Prices on used iron in my area appear crazy. Don’t have quantitative data to back up that statement, but junk is selling fast for stupid money. My customers are spending money to fix machines that otherwise would be auctioned.
It's the same over here, there is a world wide shortage of semiconductor material, so electronic devices can not be completed and installed into new machines/cars/ phones etc. the upshot is people are then buying older stuff to fill the need. we have seen used cars go mental over here, cars that were being weighed in for scrap at £100 are now £800 "repairable" cars. The company I work for used to buy three or four dumptrucks a year to break for spare parts because it was viable, not anymore trucks that were £5-8k three years ago are now £15-20k we can't charge 3-4 times as much for used parts as they become almost the same price as new parts and customers won't pay it.....for now. but if things keep going it might be that they have to.
If your time machine is working, yes, you could go back three years and save a bundle. Is this a bad time to buy? depends on what you think prices are going to do? and is the govt going to print more money? Could be we're at the start of a big hangover, and another 18 months will bring out some deals. The other way to look at it, we're not economists or market manipulators, look at a bunch and buy the next one that's better than the others you've seen.
I think several things made things go crazy . The first thing was people were setting around and didnt have any thing to do and found something to buy . The "FREE" money that was handed out gave people money to buy stuff they wanted but couldnt before. The fear that every one went through thinking i may not be alive much longer i should buy what i want. Then the shortage of workers building new stuff also. If every one would have sat back and waited it would have helped.
Covid was only just the icing on the cake or the straw that broke the camels back or whatever. Shortages were coming no matter what. Truck drivers, mechanics, doctors, nurses, construction and professionals were all in short supply before the pandemic. Just in time deliveries were never sustainable especially when a hiccup of politics occurs. Resources like scrap metal, thrown away plastics and any other reusable materials still end up sitting in a field, dumped in a landfill or thrown in the ocean as it was still cheaper to use brand new base materials. Is this a good time to purchase a used machine to use as a toy to play with on your estate? That's up to you. Just keep in mind that there is no law the forces manufacturers to keep building parts for that runner machine and they keep changing and building new machines in a way that you won't be able to keep it running if it is five years or more old. I have several acquaintances that have dead iron sitting on their properties now.
Seems like we're on a verge of a recession, yet the market is crazy on a lot of things.
If you can afford to pour that amount of money down a rat hole, by all means go ahead. If you have a specific project, buy a good one, get your project done, and resell quickly. Be careful with older machines, especially low market number machines, even more careful with orphans. Some repair parts are no longer available. Chances are the missing part won't be some substantial part, but some stupid plastic part not easily reproducible. As far as good used equipment getting cheaper, its probably going to be a while. I've heard deere is sold out of some equipment for 2023 already.
You would be better served skipping the equipment and investing in more ammo and food. JMHO
My advice as always for the very low time user is consider renting as needed. the junky machines that is out there these days in the hobby price range are truly wore out pieces of s*** because they’ve been through multiple owners (each who have worn it slap out) like s*** through a goose. and good luck getting parts. Not only expensive but with the state of the economy very hard to obtain. And lots of stuff will be broken on the pile of crap you buy.
Renting is the word of the day, and that goes triple for the local housing situation. My brother is trying to buy a condo in Seattle and getting out bid on anything. The inventory is low and prices are nuts. I hope he just short term rents till things settle down, which will happen sooner than later.
Bullsh!t. Do not go down that road. Everything was chugging along perfectly fine before the scamdemic. You CANNOT shut a industrialized nation down like was done for a year and blame the current state of affairs on inevitability. Take that crap to the coffeeshop.
I would have to agree with John C on this - this has been coming before covid hit - we are in a rural area in east central Illinois and were experiencing worker shortages before all this - and the whole just in time thing has been a joke since it began for most of us end users. Yes, one hiccup and it all went south. Would have to be blind to not see that coming at some point. We are now finding out how easy it has been and how truly blessed we have been. We have done this to ourselves and pray we will all have mercy and grace as this continues to unfold. This will hit a bottom - not sure where/when - and those who are wise and courageous enough will see good times again.
It's a fantastic time to sell equipment right now. I've listed a 420DIT, F250, 4700 International and a Bomag trench roller on Iron Planet's market place. Already sold the 420 for $1k over asking price. The other items are only in preview, expect the F250 to sell quickly. Selling our under utilized (read old) equipment at what I think is the hight of the market. Been on this rock for almost 50 years and lived through several economic booms and downturns, timing is everything. It's time to sell - Just my $.035 adjusted for massive inflation YMMV.
Or, if you find a great deal on a piece you need (not want) get it while the getting is good if you have to finance it.
People are leaving illinois. It's the top state losing population. And the young generation don't want to work construction. Illinois is ruined by democratic Chicago.
On the flip side it's a great time to buy a thirsty diesel sucking machinery and vehicles if you are a low hour user, the bigger they are the cheaper they go! At least that's what I'm seeing since the start of this year, yeah might be overkill in size but you won't have to worry about breaking it and gets it done twice as fast if you are good enough to work it right
while I mostly agree with you there was definitely some straining of some things before COVID. The skilled worker and logistical worker shortage was very much happening due to aging out of the experienced and willing workforce and insufficient replacements coming in. The COVID idiocy just broke it completely and the willingness of the powers that be to continue in detrimental policies has had lasting effects. just in time and lean manufacturing are all great concepts when everything works right but the minute it starts coming apart everything gets screwed up. Doubtlessly more people will die in the end (mostly in the third world) than would have died had nothing been done for COVID,
I remember making this observation about JIT back in the 1990s and it sure took a long time to come home to roost (I used to subscribe to it too), but the response I got was that it was no problem, Sam (bull headed manager at the time) would be on the horn to whoever making sure they knew we needed it NOW and that it would show up. Well Sam has probably retired by now but he could get on the horn and yell all he wants and they are still not going to ship it these days, because it doesn't exist, can't get anyone to make it either.
It has become worse over here, allegedly the wiring looms for many European manufacturers are made in the Ukraine on a JIT basis. so currently they are struggling to supply cars because of that, that plus other supply issues mean people are getting DE spec'd cars, and are expected to take them for the reduced price for reduced spec. in what world do the manufactures believe someone sat down and thought long and hard about what options they want in a car, and then be told "oh we can't do that now" and the customer would just shrug it off.
I have been thinking about this recently, if we could relax the parts per billion emissions standards that are not necessary anyway, and the ridiculous CAFE standards to squeeze out 2% more fuel economy, that require an 8 or 10 speed automatic transmission, and do without the TV in the back seat, then we would not need so many chips or computers on a car. When I was a kid I looked out the window and I learned a lot from doing that.
the days of " if it's got fuel and a spark it should run" are so far behind us it's scary, but in those days things ran without problems and the problems were cheap and easy to fix, so big business didn't profit from your misery.
The manufacturers and dealers make a pretty penny off of all the add on stuff. Each component has a profit margin as does each replacement part. You will notice that there are no simple machines or cars on the market anymore that don't include things like air conditioning, rear view cameras, fancy seats and on and on. Air conditioning was an expensive option when I was young. Now they don't sell cars or equipment without it. When was the last time you saw a wheel loader or dozer without a cab? Do they make rock drills now days without cabs, AC and dust control systems?
The government mandated emissions and safety standards have forced the cost of vehicles and equipment to increase the largest amount in addition to becoming less reliable on the powertrain side IMO. All the the other "add-ons" are market driven. If the purchaser didn't want a dozer with a cab and A/C then the manufacturers wouldn't be able to sell any. I love the creature comforts and won't buy a piece of new iron without a cab with A/C. Good or bad, the manufacturers are just responding to their customer base and providing a product the consumer wants to buy. I don't want to run an open cab CTL all day on a hot August day in Alabama so why should I expect an employee too?
This ↑↑ And an aside I've been waiting for someone, somewhere to comment on. Since somewhere in the mid-90s, IIRC, the EPA started down the Tier I, II, III, etc. path, off-road and on-road. Manufacturers have spent untold billions of dollars to meet these regs, all in the name of burning diesel cleanly and making everything whisper-quiet. Now that the timeline and regs are apparently satisfied, equipment is expensive to purchase and repair, complex in nature, and, lately, evidently obsolete as we're being told we all need to go electric. Maybe I'm trying to climb a greased pole here, but that chain of events makes no sense whatsoever to me.
not gonna happen. You can have small equipment battery powered (with limitations!) and really big stuff electrified by cable/overhead but your everyday dirt equipment no way in hell, at least not anytime soon unless some crazy breakthroughs are made. And even if you magically could electrify everything they think can be electrified the infrastructure just ain’t there for it nor will it be anytime soon.
The manufacturers were part of the formulating the Tier System. Nothing was done that didn't have the engine people involved. The problem is the same thing as the salmon in the Pacific Northwest. You can have dams on the Snake and Columbia rivers for power and irrigation or you can bust the dams in your effort to have salmon populations like there were a hundred years ago. We are reaching that either/or position as a society in the next few years. Stay calm, monitor and adjust.
Those engine regs are a large part of the reason I have been pushing to fix or repair the 1998 JD 120. A new machine that size can be a nightmare.
We all know it's not that simple John. We also know why, and what needs to happen to change the trajectory. Obviously, I will stop there, because posting anything else will be against the rules.
Its not political, its bureaucratical. Both parties have been in power since it started. The problem traces back to the clean air act of 1970, where congress specifically prohibited economic analysis when mandating clean air rules.
In the world where you are lucky to get anything at all. I ordered my F-350 Dec. 12, 2021. I received an email saying they think they will start the build the week of June 6th. Reminds me of the Reagan joke:
I took @ianjoub s advice and visited Homosassa Springs this past Saturday. My wife and I took an impromptu anniversary trip to Florida, and that ended up being one of our stops. She loves marine life and seeing the manatees up close just made her day.
Ahhh, second pic is in the 'fishbowl' in Homosassa Springs State Wildlife Park. You should have messaged. The wife and I would have been glad to host y'all for dinner!
I wasn't paying attention and posted in the wrong thread. I thought I was viewing the picture thread...
I'm guessing this time next year the prices may be much lower.