So- what's everyone's crystal ball saying? The tech markets are in the tank, but I'm in the "old worn out equipment" market instead of the stock market, and we've been busy. fuel is still up, groceries in the store are up, shipping and parts cost are up. We in for a crash? the worst already over? I don't want this to get political, although politics and economy can be intertwined. But we're looking at doing some different things and I was just curious what the collective mind has for opinions on where we are currently heading? My personal opinion is things aren't going to change much. We've just elected gridlock in DC for another two years, interest rates aren't going to go up much, because uncle sam owes too much money himself- he can't afford higher interest rates. I think the only thing either party will agree on- is that they will bail out/ print whatever $$ they need to not have a hard recession like '08 again. But a couple years ago I was down on facebook, uber, and tesla, and some other tech stuff, and I missed a huge rise in all those stocks, I was just a little early on their price fall. So I could be just as wrong now, as I was wrong then. So what says the collective- go hard, hold fast, or batten down the hatches because we're in for a rough ride?
I think we are in for a rough ride. With heating oil, fuel and groceries up and peoples income flat its going to be a long winter. A lot of people are living paycheck to paycheck its going to hard on them. I'm not all doom and gloom but am definitely watching my spending more and minimizing any debt.
I'm hunkering in myself. I have 2 vehicles that need replaced right now but no way am I getting into more debt anytime soon. I'll have my work truck paid for in 3 months and I'll be debt free again, just in time as I see it. Call me weird but I have never played in the markets, I just don't trust others with handling my money. I will be putting money back and riding out the storm until better times arrive.
I think I'm with Crane Op on this one. I'm not worried but sometimes feel like I should be. I have minimal debt, only the house and barn, and I'm above water (for the most part substantially) on both of those should I need to get out. My wife has some auto debt, but it's manageable and she works for the gov't so is pretty safe. I have some money in the stock market that will stay there. It's not huge amounts but it's some. I wish I had more cash there so I could be buying more stocks right now. I have a few different accounts. One that is managed and is more money, one that I play with and after doing well on a few stocks it's all free money now, so I don't worry about it. KimDotCom has an interesting thread on Twitter talking about the world financial system, I'll paraphrase poorly- Basically he says that Russia and China are attempting to come up with a note that basically competes with the Dollar. The thought is it would/could take over from the dollar which is way, way over extended (or way, way in debt, or both) in USA and Europe. He's got some thought behind it but I struggle to see how either of those markets have a sustainable currency should the west fall apart, as it seems like that's where most of that money comes from.
They just passed a huge school bond here and costs are up everywhere and only going higher. It's going to be hard times for a lot of people and turning a lot of people into debt slaves. High oil prices will keep us out a recession.
Some things have cooled off, but many things are in short supply. That means someone is using those things. Try to find nice windows for a house next month. Try to find circuit breakers for an industrial plant, or a plc, or other switchgear. Try to buy a piece of new equipment. That stuff isn't going to happen short term. Everyone is still working, the USA is way short of housing. I think the chances of a significant recession are overblown. That is my take today. Tomorrow may bring a new circumstances.
I don't know how common the resistors I'm trying to buy are (and I don't know anything about resistors, in general) but any of the ones I'm looking for have a 40 week lead time...
I think trying to keep up the appearance of wealth is what's coming to bite a lot people.
Every one talks gloom and doom but how knows. My world is just kind of flat i wish scrap iron would go up some but i am still hauling some. I have noticed more out of stock stuff now than ever before. I am going to down size and figure out ways to save money. It could be alot worse .
Alot of people have been able to have every thing new trying to keep up that they will be paralyzed try to deal any other way.
I've been looking at newer large machines with big payments that people are wanting to trade to smaller iron. What I see is this country has infrastructure; roads, electrical transfer systems, water projects and sewer that has needed to be worked on for years. If congress is split, nothing will happen on any of that. No need for 50 to 80 ton excavators, D8, 9, 10 and 11 dozers, 14 graders and larger, scrapers in any size and 40 ton ADTs. One party hasn't done an infrastructure project since the national highway system got built in the sixties. I agree that money will continue to be printed to just get by and not solve any problems at all.
For one thing they didn’t learn a damn thing from the ‘08 crash and now are passing out huge loans like candy to truly unqualified buyers. Crappy, maybe worth $100k on a good day tract homes are all selling for $250-350k. Two people at my work recently brought such homes with accompanying $2100 payments for the next 30 years…
Things have changed as far as food inflation goes-our shipments of frozen are slightly down canned/dry up, but that is a natural shift just like 2008. Car market in this area is soft as far as new. But what I see as a controlling factor in trucks the super inflated price. Parts haven't skyrocketed just because of availability, parts for tier two older stuff has climbed steadily because of tier four problems. Which has caused a conundrum {do I spend the money and buy new with warranty or keep the old and pour thousands into it}. I have had several people question me which route is better-{all depends on the brand and shape of equipment they have now} I have no crystal ball. As far as what will happen nation wide-no one knows it's just a guess and roll of the dice at this moment. Probably know more after February.
Do you blokes remember on here seeing a video of CEE (Cutting Edge Engineering) Gold Coast Australia rebuilding and remanufacturing earthmoving stuff. I was talking to him other day and he is swamped, not taking on anymore work until late February. And the reason, long lead time on parts and the cost of them. This is what it was like through the hard times in the 60s, 70s only then there wasn't any airfreight. So back to the future we go I'm thinking
I listen to a show where they'll occasionally keep an eye on cycles and there have been many, many parallels with our current times to the 1970s. I don't have a good list in mind but it's interesting. I guess it's nice to know we made it through those times ok.
I watch his new video every week. I really enjoy seeing the type of work he does and how he approaches it. I'm not surprised he is swamped as it is the same way here. The local machine shops around here have all they can handle as well. One shop had to turn work down and go to one shift only due to a lack of employees. They pay well, they have benefits and such, but people don't want to do that type of work. 20 years ago, they had lots of people waiting for their chance to work for them. Today, people put in an application, get a scheduled interview and then don't show up for interview. Same at our farm. Always had list of people in the office that wanted to work. Now we have to chase down any leads we can to find help and most of those are duds.
I've always kind of approached life with an if I can't write a cheque for it, I can't afford it attitude. I'd much rather wait and save up for a year to buy a new toy than to finance it and pay half again what its worth in interest by the time its paid off.
Hunkering down and consolidating. Getting ready to snatch up cheap real estate to hold onto for the next boom. Missed the last boom, but will be ready by next one. Far as food, well we are going towards self sustainability anyways so more animals will start popping up come spring. Going to spend winter finalizing pole barn and start setting poles in the ground for fence. As far as buying any new machinery, nope decided against it work with what I have and in a year or two if I still need it then will consider it, saving up for more land out here. As for the market, according to financial advisor they are saying hold fast in their reports they send out to us, had to restructure it though holding steady ready at a moments notice just in case to sell off. Everyone thinks we are going to have major crash, I look at history last time we had this much inflation back in the 80's we didn't have large crash as '08, so inflation doesn't always mean a crash though we are due for one. If the wages stagnated when inflation hit as it did then I would of expected one. My advise, hunker down, consolidate and cut the extras out like cable TV, dining out, road trips. Though invest in something cause any dollar sitting there is losing value when saving, buy low sell high what you know and can.
My daughter works for an architect company and says they have work lined up for the next year. I see lots entities girding for a down turn but right now still going balls out crazy. Tech firms taking a hit so maybe that's where the pain in going to be felt the most. Hopefully some people who are let go will end up having to work in the trades and find out sitting behind a desk isn't the glory job they thought it was.
I hope they stay far away from the trades. Last thing I want to deal with is having coworkers with that kind of corporate mindset if you catch my drift.
Most everything around here that is Truck dependent is slowed to a crawl. Parts, Service due to NO Parts, sales due to low inventories, from tons up. Cement orders are way down, that from the guys hauling clay to the kilns, barge traffic is slow but due to low water, grain shipments not moving leaving brokers holding stranded costs against loans. Noted grocery is still High, Fuels of all types still High, anything as to materials for homes still high and damned near to no available work forces for labor intensive positions. Old saying still holds. Hard Times produce Hard Men, Hard Men produce Good Times, Good Times produce Soft Men and Soft Men produce Hard Times.
I would look at this in a positive light. Most of us in the trades are here because we had no other choice. That may likely take hold again. Many in desk jobs have the intelligence and work ethic to perform in the trades. The ones that don't want to do this type of work will be filtered out pretty quickly.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for people getting into skilled trades if they enjoy the job and the work culture, I'm just concerned that the folks from big tech will bring along that woke mentality they've been branded with.
I believe the later millennials are soft making the later gen z much better people. I guess we will have fun until then
I remember reading somewhere that anyone who borrowed heavily and thought the low interest rates would always stay low was living in a fools paradise. I know a few of these people. They built or bought expensive homes new vehicles and lots of toys. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
I did ask the lady at the gas station about a diesel shortage, she didn't know of anything not did she know if it was going up or down.
I've read that if interest rates go any higher something like 20% of homeowners in this country wouldn't be able to afford the mortgage payments anymore.
Variable Rate, balloon mortgages, Always in flux floating interest adjusting rates, then have to add in Property Tax assessments rising due to values increases. Our payment went up $120 JUST For Taxes and Insurance(New Value) Escrow.
Every house in our area went up 20k in county appraisal value, then they added a 140 million school bond on top, and city sales tax is 9.25% It will be hard times for the stupid for sure
I tend to go by what my cat does, I noticed yesterday he was looking in the cupboard counting his canned and dry food.
Property evaluation? Mine was raised 60K, average around here was 90K.
Mine went up ninety K. We are likely to be paying over seven K a year or more next year.
Don't get too mad folks, but this place is only appraised at $1227 which equates to $98 in taxes, the other 3 parcels are about $90 a piece. It went up $85 in 2 years. Mind you that's 20 plus acres each parcel. Once I get pole barn up and they figure out how to tax it, I believe it will be around $40k for appraisal, which then I will file some paperwork to get that nullified for appraisals up to $250k.
People just love it when their property gains value and hate the taxes on the down side. I'm sure it's the same across the state, the inflation and property tax is really hurting a lot of old folks. If they sell there's not much to move to, retirement havens are expensive.
Out in our little neck of the woods we still have twisted pair main cable hanging from poles in tree lines!! SOME of the cable was put underground decades ago then the area got ignored. Fiber transition box is less than mile and a half from here goes to buried that less than half mile from here goes back onto pole past six clients and ends up feeding our house and three others. Been told not financially feasible to finish burying it all.
Oh they finished it, power is in to the persons place. I had my fun yesterday, was driving the loader home after plowing the road and I seen a light shine on a tree in front of me about 2 miles from my home on the ridge. I peaked back to not let them know I seen them it was the ******** neighbor and his wife. I dropped the loader in 1st and went half throttle never turning around. Took about hour or more to get home after that
Track housing busted here I am guessing multi family is not far behind cause it's going up more than ever and tilt warehouse is off the charts and is possibly going to show signs of overbuilding Rumor around Intel is no tool install after base build of new building witch is biggest they built yet. But that could be a tech shift more than market driven All that said noticed things tightened a little on work projects are getting pushed back and the rumors of investors jumping out is the story for the push backs But a for sure fact that companies from residential are already trying to buy jobs outside there market concrete is more available now than ever in the last 18 months the cat dealer has more equipment available than the last 12 months and I see a lot of people that dont know how to operate without debt so things are changing
Main reason we are doing good in Southeast is everybody and their cousin is trying to move here. when that dries up I’m sure there will be a nice layoff slip for us directly behind that. I don’t know what I’ll do then.
Existing contracts on constructs are still rolling here, but nothing new being applied for. Can see the slowing efforts as guys try to milk out what can.
Does slower concrete work mean less expensive concrete work in this context? I'd love to get a bargain slabbing some of the barn floor. I imagine it's still more than I could afford but it may be worth contemplating...
Not really, cost of fuel, cost of cement has not gone down but rather UP. Labor to produce and haul Concrete then finish it out will keep those prices high.
At least that'll keep me from thinking too hard about it.
Material prices wont come down till the market stagnates
Prices won't come down until the zombie apocalypse, we are already paying high prices why lower them?
Good question Crane Op. What I have seen is the ITB's for any sort of private retail project such as strip malls, restaurants and other small retail vanish over night. I haven't received an ITB for a viable commercial job in the last 1-1.5 months and don't expect it to change anytime soon. This is to be expected as the Fed has raised interest rates on new money not only for future construction loans but on consumer loans and credit cards as well in order to get inflation down. Since consumers have less disposable income, there is less need for a place for them to spend it in. I don't know how many % points hikes it's going to take to control inflation but I know how many the Fed are going to use.. Muni and gov't jobs have held the same pace of ITB's however we are not heavily in that market yet so I lack the historical data to see if it's a trend one way or the other. I think our residential market specifically the luxury garden homes on small lots sold in the $500-700K range over the last 3 years are at least $100K over valued. Just my opinion after getting killed in the '08 recession. This time around it's different than '08 but not in a good way IMO.
Yea the causes for the 08 demise are not the same, but the effect will likely be the same. I saw commercial projects set to go, crumble this Fall. Some due to interests, and others to out of control costs. This could be a tough a year or years. The Gov is trying to kill growth to kill inflation, they are certainly killing growth. Kinda like trying to kill cancer. The cure is only slightly better than what your trying to stop. It is going to be bloody bidding next Spring, tons of new excavation companies, all of them trying to make payments. Welcome 2008....
Wife is still pushing Sell the place, move to smaller requirement digs, did not pay attention to or remember her own panic attack as of last offer. She wants to retire at 62 and not have to do anything, told her that does not work but not listening. Would like to find a five to ten acre tract, MINIMAL Grassy areas, have existing structures can adapt and modify for purpose, construct a SHOUSE, mostly Garage and a two bedroom two bath home NO Basement on a Red Iron Frame. She would have to discard so much would lose her mind, I have nothing that is not saleable or disposable and she is quite aware. I like Wood Stoves for heat and ground loop heat pump is fine for a base system, she does not see that, I can see using a wood fired Cook Stove she cannot, can also see living minimal AC in a well shaded home managed that until was late teens, working garage and nuke heat is not a bad option anymore. She Demands simple yet cannot simplify what she already has, then requires so many add ons as to not be viable at all.
DM, I don't envy your situation at all.
Just grin and bear it, chew on my lip a lot as she makes up her mind to change it next day. Been like that since day one living together and more than once walked out awhile only to be apologized to and asked back. 38 years. Was just as I was ceasing to do side work, she did not understand how I was managing two jobs and able to devote time for her but paid for a lot of accessories. She will decide or I will in next couple years as she closes in on 62, she will not accept it until works it out in her own messed up head that is all good. She still does not understand this is not our ‘Forever Home’ as she was the last one to consider selling it and I do remind her of that, often. I will likely have that Shouse set up in two years and this little farm packed off, just another investment.
Well here we are a year later, and I'm wondering where everyone is at. Interest rates are up, Stock market is too. Used truck prices are still crazy (with signs of dropping- I've recently seen some for sale at "reasonable" prices), new car dealership lots I drive by are full of vehicles. Personally, we've had our busiest year ever. I opened a second location at the start of this past year. Its just a leased building and yard, and its working out. Some growing pains, but nothing too severe. My phone calls, and work load is as steady and strong as it has ever been. I've lately run into a few contractors that are looking for work, which hasn't been the norm for the last two years. I am looking at more equipment, and maybe a couple more employees. I'm expecting a large increase in my insurance premium this year, they've already sent me their official letter that its going to be at least 10% up. So likely my rates are going up also. So how's everyone else's crystal ball? Cloudy? Clear skies and fair weather?
I think if we’re looking at finance numbers at all, they say we’re headed for the biggest financial collapse in modern history. Credit card debt is insane, vehicle debt same situation. The one thing I’ll say is the more I know about this current market, the less I understand. Take rent prices for instance, median price today is pushing 2k a month, median mortgage payment is pushing 3k a month. All the while the median income sits at 75k. That math is tough. 30-50% a month going to housing? I don’t think everyone is headed for collapse but I certainly think the majority of Americans will have their instant gratification lifestyles changed in the coming future. Might be on an island by myself here but that’s what I think.
Partly cloudy with a few bright spots of clear sky. The commercial market is sluggish where the only real movers are gas stations, tire stores, auto parts and fast food. Typical for an economic slowdown. Even if consumers have less disposable income they still have to repair their car, put tires on it and fill it up. When you can't afford to take the family out to a sit down joint you go through a drive thru. We are having to bid twice as much to keep the pipeline full. Currently have a small office building, commercial development with a tire store and a retail lot and fast food joint. There is a fair amount of school, community college and other gov't type projects hitting the pipeline as well. I haven't been successful in landing one of those yet. Still trying to figure out how to price one, if that makes sense. Bought a new track hoe this year. It helped the old one was paid for and we rolled that equity into the new one. New one has full auto GPS. If the trackhoe is as efficient as our D3 full auto, I'll be very happy. We are still having a horrible time finding people who want to and know how to work. Technology is cheaper than people in some instances. This year I would like to add a new 279D3 and a smart grader blade with GPS for final grading. This would free up the D3 and save a lowboy move when we go back to put parking lots on final grade for the curbing and paving. Also like to add a dump truck for our use, moving the smaller iron and hire out. The state is going to start a $300M widening of I-65 in fall of '24. Construction will start in '24 and wrap up in '27. There might be some opportunity there. I think going forward being quick and efficient is the key to success as bids continue to tighten. As far as the housing market goes here locally it's still tight as it's ever been. Not much used inventory as most mortgages are financed at 2-3% fixed for 30 years so people are staying put. Anything new is over $200 SF and on a postage stamp beginning at $500K and going up. Surprisingly the new homes are selling at a brisk pace. I think it has to do with the 5/1 arm mortgages which is fine now however what happens in 4-5 years if the refi rate is 8-9% then? Could be a big issue down the road. If our work load stays steady whether it be commercial, gov't or highway the wife and I would love to start our house. We'll see how that goes.
Definitely glad we built ours in 2020 before prices and interest rates went to the moon. Couldn’t do anything close to what we’ve got with todays prices that’s for sure. We hunkered down over a year ago and I don’t see changing the strategy in the near future. I still believe cash is king and those that have it will be in a better place coming out of a recession.
Wanted to add that material prices have stabilized as well for the most part which is a good thing. RCP and HDPE pipe is relatively consistent compared to 2 years ago when it changed almost daily. Stone is going up next year per the letter I received from Vulcan. On a down note a friend of mine works his trucks for an industrial construction company that does alot of work inside our local steel mills. Usually this time of year is their busiest time however this year they are only working 1 day between Christmas and New Years. Not a good sign for the industrial sector. Agree. We are getting 5% on some 3, 6 and 9 month CD's which is nice. Not a lot of money but nice none the less.
This passing year has been good, and I stayed to busy to go on/plan a vacation.!! …despite fuel inj. parts jumping 65% across the board..& some doubled and tripled.!! If December is any indication of things to come, I’ll be standing on the corner with a “will work for food” sign.. lol I had enough to stay busy this month and it’s been a well deserved rest period.. but I’m ready to get back at it.. I’m at my best when I have a 2-3 pump backlog.. Hope everyone had a good year.
What's funny is--read back at replies from 2022 and compare to todays.
23 was my best year on the books, four years in. ♂️. My direct expenses are low and I could probably do better if I wanted to work harder. What gets to me is the stonks market and why is it exploding? Is it time to enjoy the gains or let it ride until the train runs off the tracks? Can’t time the market, blah blah blah. Stonks always go up,…. Blah, blah blah. Doesn’t help that I just read The Great Taking by David Webb. (Of Webb Equipment fame).
In Canada most mortgages are for 20 or 25 years although you can get longer ones. However every one to five years depending what you signed up for you have to renew your mortgage at the current interest rate. With the very low interest rates people bought homes that they probably should not have. Around 60% of Canada's mortgages were renewed between January 1st 2020 and June 30th 2022 while interest rates were very low and most with a five year term. When these mortgages come up for renewal the people will see a substantial increase in their payment. Most will go up another $1500 to $2000 a month and that is if interest rates don't go up any more in the next one to three years.
I think we've had this discussion before and I didn't know that Canada did not have fixed interest term mortgages. That's wild and scary as hell. I am not a fan of a 5/1 ARM.
Canada has a choice of fixed or variable term but typically the longest time you can have before having to renew it is 5 years. I was at about 3.25% fixed for one renewal. I would have gladly took that for the full term of the mortgage. I think I was as high as about 7% on one of the renewals. I paid every 2 weeks so I think it was 18.9 years or something instead of 25 years. I did pay it off early though.
Ours is still a Fixed 4%, pay Extra EVERY Month regularly, have already knocked five years off back end of 30 year fixed rate. Markets are basing rises against not profit margins but moneys spent, IE CC Debt, that is a real bad way to do business.
We have rental homes for our income. I think the immediate future looks bleak. I can see a huge recession/depression coming with the financial reset that has been looming. We are fortunate we owe nothing, but I can see our income taking a huge hit and expenses going up for evictions (and the repairs when folks trash the places on their way out because it was obviously all my fault). I am not sure if we will go on a buying spree when the repo market is flooded with cheap places. We are old enough we don't need more and should just **** our money away doing what we want to do.
Things are going really good for me so you know it’s about to all go to ****
Page 1 Nov 2022 it sounded like the earth was flat and were close to the edge.
I don't think everyone was doom and gloom last november, I'm cherry picking statements here, but : Several other guys here took chances last year on growth. I think its good to think about "what if the economy goes the other way", especially when things are good. I try not to carry much debt, but the way the tax code works, its more profitable/ uncle sam incentivizes debt. So I do carry some debt. I was totally wrong last year, about interest rates not going up a lot (they went up more than I thought they would), and I think today they are going to go down in the next year. We are looking at doing some work to the house, because it needs a roof, and siding, and windows. I'm a cheapskate about keeping my home maintained. But its time and it needs done.
Nope me neither. I think my market has acted/reacted close to what I expected last year.
I honestly don't know what to think I was and am concerned about the overall economy going down but I also increased revenue by 40 percent this year and bought a lot of nice to haves like a vac truck and a really nice service truck not to mention some more excavators while I mainly paid cash for most purchases the vac truck added a lot to the debt. The really strange thing to me is there are a lot of out of state companies setting up shop here in the last 2 years but they don't seem to be bringing any man power with them so the already depleted labor pool is what they are trying to hire from and it's been a **** show for that I have seen guys go onto jobs to try to poach help and people may or may have not about got into fist fights over such less than classy practices. As long as our labor pool stays the way it is we will have work I am working on one project that will probably not get done till 2027 or 28 and am bidding on another that may be 2 years long its really insane but if the data market dies then half the local contractors will be gone in a year at least that's how I see it
What brand vac truck did you get?
Somehow I missed this discussion last year. Not sure what I would have said, other than I knew going into December that I was booked full before the first of the year. Repairs/fuel are what they are, I'm considering buying another 16k bulk tank so I can take delivery of two tanker loads anytime between November and February when prices are lowest. I'm going to hit a different angle on this conversation. Those of you that are busy, I assume that a percentage of the work is scheduled, and the rest is walk-in? Obviously, everybody has a slightly different dynamic, but with a small crew such as mine, it is difficult to find the line between scheduling enough to make sure you're busy all the time, but leave enough time for the walk-in work. My problem is I seem to always commit to more than the season allows. In my area, every season there seems to be a lot of "impulse" work I'll call it. About mid-September, guys start calling wanting work done. If I've completely filled the schedule, like I usually do, I have to tell these guys I can't get there, have to do it next year. Most guys wait, some don't. The biggest fear is the ones that go buy their own yellow iron and then I've lost them for good.
Vermeer it was the deal to be made we bought a used one out of North Dakota dam thing is huge I was being extorted by badger and the service was questionable so when I questioned them about there response was no one else will cover you so what are you going to be able to do about it and the saga started there If that's your biggest fear then your probably OK I hear you on the have room for walk in work and it gets a little rough sometimes keeping the service work going cause we are buried in contract work at that moment In our market rental houses made service work a tough gig but since no operators exist anymore and no one has extra labor it's been reasonable with customers unable to man equipment themselves
Even if potential customers buy their own machines doesn't mean they know what they're doing or won't need some touch up work. Sometimes it results in a bigger job than it would have been because you have to try and fix the mess they created.
What are you thinking on rates? My gut says the rates are staying where they are at.
Down 1 to two points. They've got inflation stunted, and don't want a collapse. Higher interest hurts uncle sam, he owes a lot of $$. They've got to be getting a lot of static from real estate and automakers. I don't think they care terribly about the real estate sector, but the bankers backing it are the force there. Auto sector is lots of jobs and voters, they aren't going to let them get hurt long term either.
But I was wrong about rates last year, and I still think Tesla is a terrible buy, so I wouldn't bet the bank on any of my thoughts.....
Not around here. It usually starts with a pull pan, and most guys already have a loader and skidder. After they start doing there own scraping, they get used to not waiting, and then the hoe comes.
And then they are probably doing the neighbors work also, and then they're the competition. Farmers with a dirt working hobby would be tough to compete with. I've got "competition" running around with no skills, no insurance, and a willingness to set trusses all day on a saturday for $200. One of his "customers" says the framers get pissed by being knocked off the wall, but "he's cheap".
I had a dog and ............. was his name-o.
I hope so. My confidence in the fed is lets say not that great. For us it's bubba and a backhoe. I guess for you it's bubba and a boom truck?
"You charge what per hour? Dad-gum it can't be that hard. We needs us som a that there constructions I-ron."
The grass cutters here all drive around with Cat tags on front of their Tundras just waiting until the Cat man can finance their first CTL - then they're in the big leagues and the big money. That or firemen that have an Equipmentshare rental account. Generalizing of course but it's the reason I stay in the commercial market. Contracts, submittals, schedules and safety policies pay more and keep the bottom feeders out.
I second the thought that rates stay the same for interest and for work Iron prices have seemed to stabilize and now the salesman is offering in today's terms a reasonable deal it seems wait times for new iron is down to a few months or less from where it was what I am curious about is if credit card debt being is high as it is will consumer spending drop like a rock come January or will that just soften a bit and stager on I was told by rental house who spends big money for there fortune teller to tell them third qt 24 will be a recession now don't everybody run to the bank at once The only thing I am counting on is whats already billed and in the bank as for the rest I have high hopes
You are not helping me feel good in my decision to not lock myself into one big job instead of 20 smaller ones for the sake of my customers and my sanity.....
I would much rather have the 20 customers than one. Lose one out of 20 jobs and it’s not a big deal. One big customer makes a mistake on the board of trade, he suddenly changes his mind, and you’re looking for a years worth of work.
1 big jobs a lot of money tied up its a lot more risk Plus the profitability for 20 smaller jobs should be a lot better and you will get paid faster or at least should be
Work around Mid MO is slowing considerably, MODOT and the Governor are betting big on keeping contractors happy with I-70 expansion first phase thru Warrenton MO, Second thru to Columbia MO (CoMO) and I-44 from Gray Summit to Cuba then Rolla. UMCoMO has been expanding their campus facilities, previous co-workers wife works at UMC Ag department, stated at our recent meeting that the University is seeing fewer entrants due to rising costs, Med Instruction is reducing classes as are the Educator level teaching course categories. Those concerns may shut down further work in Columbia MO. Bridge Reconstruct work on St Louis area Interstates is running at a feverish rate, age and Winter Road application chemicals have all but destroyed most of them. That EVER catches up those trades will slow drastically.
That strikes a pretty significant note. Three locals that RELIED on Nuke and Dirt Burner power station work are not adding members as we speak. Apprenticeships have been shuttered as I have found out. Electricians, Iron Work, Pipe Fitters all have reducing numbers and are keeping it that way as the work is decreasing as the plants shut down or are shuttered. Rush Island AMEREN plant to shutter then proceed to decommission this next year, two of the four units at Labadie AMEREN similarly, Portage Des Sioux is upgraded but living on short time as the EPA Mandated storage ponds for Ash are near to filled out. Just at 4100mw Electrical production BYE BYE. Antique Meramec Plant closed last year and is already being dismantled. But they did buy in on a Wind Power station being developed NW MO that will generate 270mw, when can run.
X3 on preferring 20 smaller customers over 1 large one. I fell into that trap this year somewhat where a project went from 2 large commercial lots, 28 townhomes and all associated roads to just a short street and 1 commercial lot. Our storm scope was cut 85%, dirt cut 75%, etc. There was 1,500 loads of import off site. Now it's down to 100-120 loads. Won't happen again. It's a frustrating fine line in keeping enough work in the pipeline and being able to perform on the GC's schedule.
Will most likely see Contract penalty payment requirements added in should that keep building.
That is gold right there
Twenty small customers out here will sink you with fuel costs with wear and tear on vehicles.
I wouldn't call them customers if they won't pay you enough that you can't profit from it.
Better to be working on twenty small jobs making some money than have a big job shut down and not make Any money. Is nice to have machines working one place extended time but those generally have a time limit where have to have another lined up or the machines get parked until gain a bid.
Trying to start this business up, but when pen comes to paper and numbers start churning out nothing of what I'm trying to do is feasible. Might see where it runs come spring/summer but my crystal ball says customized welding and building is where my niche is and that doesn't mean going to a customers house. More of build a product in the pole barn and sell it online with delivery available for who need it. What could I build, well for around here cattle panels, windbreaks and calf shelters seem to be going thing, for wider range audience one might laugh, but I would say RSH's built from 20' shipping containers. Going to start small and see if I can afford a larger welding machine to speed up production and make things easier, trying to weld with 10' leads is a nightmare and has been in past 8 years. I could always burn a no interest for over year credit card, buy one and hope it churns out profits before the year is up.
It all starts with a dream and motivation. Be prepared for what comes positive, and the setbacks before venturing out.
Yes---I could see that. ---around here dirt work contractors are like yard care/landscape businesses, one on every corner all fighting over the same carcass.
I started this dream about 13 years ago on building travel trailers from shipping containers. Built one and learned before it even got on the road it wasn't going to work based on size, and then I traveled and learned you aren't getting in some National Parks either with certain sizes. Learned solar that I didn't know back then when I started and the list goes on. Got way more tools and place to do it now too. Motivation, yeah I got so much fire under my arse I leave a trail where I go. Not just that, but you are at the mercy of DOT, insurance companies, weather and the customer who wanted it done yesterday for half price.
Now you need to "funnel, or channel" that motivation into an arena that has a market. This takes exploration and education to find this market. You mention cattle panels and the like; that is big business around the midwest with Priefert being a very dominant name in the farm related retail market. There is growth potential there with a smaller operation but every Tom, Dick, and Harry, can do the same job. You just have to be better than them. Build a good product and in the initial phases go above and beyond to prove it good even if you want to kick the sumbitch in the balls that's bitching about something. Just don't grow too fast. Slow and steady is much more stable than the immediate gratification most seek. "Pay as you go" avoiding finance is the scenario I've always operated under and it's proven reliable for my operations; many of which are still going strong. I have nothing against an operational line of credit with a financial institution to shore up to down times, but this needs judiciously and rigidly controlled to not go broke.
Best way to market something is to own one yourself and use it around your market group with a website that isn’t so much in your face one could search along with leave brochures along the route with contact information. I seen the heads turn and thumbs up with horns honking as people passed me on freeways with camper I’m in now that was unique, build something as such and same will follow. Got tons of compliments and questions on my trips.
Compliments are not always buyers. All too many as the woman I married are interested in Thread Counts, Carpet Quality and does the bathroom have a fan. Get aggravated as have to climb steps or ride too far to utilize or to pay a Park parking fee for that service. I am not selling you short just need to recognize the market as not necessarily going to make one that does not yet exist. Portable Office Space is already modding CONEX boxes, many end up as Farm Office or Hunting cabin when business wears out the linings. CHEAP.
Construction here is going bananas, and showing no signs of slowing, so I'm busy. My biggest problem right now, is how fast I can get parts. Back in 2020 / 2021 when everyone was quitting and living off gubmint handouts, there would be days when I didn't even go to work, because no parts had arrived yet, there's no point in going in. Machines would just sit until parts got here. That didn't happen very often, but it happened. Even Napa was running low on filters and stuff like that. Things are better than that now, but still slower than they were back before covid. You want to know what your wallet is going to look like when the market crashes? Have a look back at 2020. I was busy (I bet alot of you were too), but nobody else was. I bought Shell Oil then and it's tripled since. That's not how my whole portfolio looks, but it is having a record year. Diversify. Adapt and overcome. most importantly, fasten your seatbelts, we're going for a ride!
Though none are travel trailers, that's the selling point. Tad heavier than one, more robust and lot more options than one. Yes I know the weight of a conex and I have ways of shaving that weight down, back doors is 600 lbs alone from I weighed last. Though you are right about words are one thing.
Converting connex boxes seems to be very popular here. Not just mobile office types but all kinds of storage options with multiple door, shelving and lighting options. A friend has one at his motorcycle repair business. Has a big roll up side door, shelves in one part and open in the other. He keeps all his oil and lubricants in it as well as some parts. He has another 20' just for storage. What's particularly nice with connex boxes is they are easily blocked up to level them without needing extensive blocking. If you had room you could set up storage units and really rake in the money. Making storage units for others is also a good use for them. Lots of possibilities, even houses are made with connex boxes. Some are really nice.
Bet you, you haven’t seen a Conex box done like this on the inside nor a travel trailer. As I said, possibilities are endless what I can do on these. Few grain bin sheets put up in the ceiling and it’s one of a kind. Yeah I even got RV windows in this one. … drops crystal ball shattering it… Spud Monkey out"…
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Spud, where I set there are a couple of dozen cattle equipment manufacturers within an hours drive. Profitability depends on buying steel cheap, using low priced labor, and being efficient in your process. Nobody can charge much more than the cheapest seller. But I don't know anyone who puts in solar, especially off-grid solar.
Have to be licensed electrician for starters, next thing nothing political, but middle America sees those with solar as liberal and shun it. Then you add in the fact well today you are going to pay for about 10 to 15 years worth of electricity in advance and they run the other way. Tell people they can't have their hot tub and electric heat they run the other way. EV's are to solar panels in all aspects, now if I could put in small coal power plant then I would be rich and fighting for a contract. Last misinformation I have heard, solar panels only last 10 years.
I have no issue with solar panels themselves and think they would be a viable solution on a residential level. Issue I have is when I google “where are most solar panels made” it tells me 75% of all solar panels are made in china and higher with certain types of panels. If we could fix that problem, I’d like them more. We already do too much business with them.
Elon musk was on the joe Rogan podcast and said that we could power America with a 100 square mile solar field. I’m sure things get political real quickly from there. Before I left Maine there were tons of solar farms going in. Made no sense to me. Maine doesn’t have the strongest sunlight in the country. Seems as though the southwest United states would be the ideal location. My master plan would be to drill lots of oil wells in west Texas and then put down solar panels wherever there wasn’t a well. No shortage of oil or sunlight in that part of the world.
You would not believe the solar going in here it is insane I bet there had been close to 15 square miles built in the last 10 years
Small, efficient and well engineered nuclear plant are where we should be headed, until at least we know the best alternative green energy that will be powering us in the future. The green deal is at the moment a money scam for the rich to get richer and screw everyone else. Look at the broken million panel solar farm in I think New Mexico. Right now everyone is scrambling to best the other energy source and our government just committed to EV’s and right now Hybrid is the only winner.
I was just reading about someone with a Nissan Leaf that needed a new battery. I don't know why the battery failed but a replacement battery was $60,000! Who is going to pay that kind of money just for a battery?? You could buy a new car cheaper. Just ridiculous.
Lets see--we just shot through oil, coal, nuclear, solar, natural gas, hydro electric not much left that's viable at this point. And out of those six no one can agree on any two that have the least enviro issues. Most of the time no one really cares until there's no power and they are munching on a cold pop tart------when the toaster doesn't lite up that causes worry. * The masses don't care or think about it until the lights don't come on, it's all for granted. The interworking's of the power grid are so vast. But don't worry Genrac will save the day.
Generac will save the day until the time when you really need it and it won't start because it hasn't been used for a long time or wasn't properly serviced.
Or your out of gas
Now just hold your horses there a mow Dave. There's still posabilities you haven't considered in this new green world by saving a Leaf. Get one, strip all the electricals out including the motor, weld 2 poles on out the front, paint 2 blue stripes front to back and remove the windscreen. There you have it, the all new Armish Shelby
I think a lot of them run on the natural gas or propane that's heating the house.
Back to the thread topic. Surprised at the ITB's in my inbox in the dead week (from Christmas to New Years) for new projects both private and government/institutional. 2024 looks decent.
Let's hope 2024 is prosperous for everyone.
What’s an ITB?
Invitation to bid.
^^^^^
Your telling me in the last 10 days I have been asked about more projects then I have done in about 5 months that all want to start in 1st quarter and that would be on top of what we are already doing But i would guess half will push out time will tell Invite to bid
Same here, I bet a good majority gets pushed. At the same time also seeing projects come back around that were bid and not awarded 6-8 months ago. Just glad to see the activity. Nice Fed gov't clear and grub job in North AL if anyone is interested. A little to big for us but might stick a toe in the water.
I see a lot of permit pending on stuff I bid 4 to 6 months ago and I have at least a dozen proceed at owners risk letters from this year it seems like permits are the biggest bottle neck here The last 9 months shifted from jobs ready waiting for us to show up to us waiting on permits and a number of guys I talked to are seeing the same thing. It is really disrupting the work flow almost to the point that now we are getting into schedule crunches where we have to turn a job down because that same month 2 others had permits issued and they are all 3 to 4 months behind schedule. I personally believe the schedule impacts and the surprise that projects spend an addition 3 to 4 months in permitting is bad management on the GCs part but I might be biased One thing iscertain I do see draws running to the very end of the pay schedule where a year ago that was not the case so I think money is definitely tightened people are pushing back a lot harder on change orders
Same here. One large home improvement store has paid 90+ days. Another large developer out of Texas was paying 90+ until the end of the year then they sent Oct and Nov at the same time. Valid change orders are being scrutinized more than I've seen in the last couple of years as well. Autoparts and coffee paid on time like clockwork - 30-40 days. Next couple of projects up is for local private developers so we'll see how that goes.
Rural land in Georgia near big power lines, is commanding a premium for solar. If you have over 350 acres of land that touches the line, they are buying or doing long term leases on the land. That land has tripled in valve almost overnight. A large tract of 1100 acres of farmers fields just sold for 14,000 per acre. In the area, top of the line irrigated farm land price was 3000 per acre 10 years ago. Seems all lands for sale has mostly disappeared in the middle of no where. The big timber companies and railroad owners just sit on the gaint tracts they have owned forever. And the large farmers are getting everything else. The few tracts that do up for sale are overpriced and are from old people dyeing and then the farm is sold off. They farmers have crews that are clearing the land with excavators, off road trucks, and big wheel loaders. Logging is going on non-stop and so is the farming. So many tracts have been completely clear cut recently and replanted. The amount of large tractors and machines the bigger farmers have is truely amazing. There is a local peanut processing plant that 17 farmers went in on and they have more than 100 tractor trailers, and who know how many transport bins and the plant is large and it runs 24 hours a day drying peanuts. 20 + million dollar operation. The farmer that is next door to them is tending over 5000 acres of land. Moving around south central Georgia to Savannha Ga on I-16, and then on to I-20 which runs to South Carolina and I-75 which runs north and south across the state, the amount of tilt wall construction it is hard to imagine. 100s of buildings are being built, millions and millions of sq feet. Mostly ware-houses. The shipping that is increasing due to the port enlargement in Savannha must be out of this world. Our state is forever changing and the ruralness is disappearing. They are building 2 auto plants, one north of Atlanta the initial gravel order was 1.6 million tons. 5 quarries filling that order with 60 dumps per day running on just that one job. And they are building an auto plant off of I-16 about 20 miles outside of Savannha. The size and the scope must be a one billion dollar project. Saw at least 5 cranes set up on that one. For me last year the commercial grading, I did well. Paid off all equipment, bought several more used machines, expanded my abilities and I have the machinery to do more and larger work. In order to do this, I was on call 24 hours a day and working 14 hour days. I got into more work than I could handle but managed to get it all done. I am questioning the point of making money and buying more machines. I was always told to make hay while the sun is shinning and I did. I am a firm believer in using old machines instead of new. Then I see the large dirt guys using new machines and I wonder if I got it wrong. I started off doing smaller residential work and have moved almost completely into commercial work. I don't have a crew it is just me. I can call others to help me if I need labor. But I don't know anyone that can replace me for my skill set, which means I have to actually do the work. I have worked alone for almost 18 years, then I was hired by another grader 3 years ago, that was giving me sub-contracting type work, he made me think we would be building a partnership and growing "our" business. It turns out I was growing "his" business. Well long story short I left which was hard for me to do because working in a group is easier than working alone and we were adding guys and building the business. I had been offered to come to work direct for a few GC's that knew me and my work and I just went to work straight for them. Since I was not really part of the pricing prior I probably did it for less than the going rate but when you are working alone what does it matter... From what I see in Georgia right now construction is good and if you have machinery and contacts you can get work. A lot of construction companies are growing. How long this lasts it is hard to say. I see people doing work that do not own machines on these jobs, everything is rented. Plumbers get a rental ex and come in from out of town for a few weeks and knock out the work. The GC's own nothing, rent everything. The guys making the money are the main dirt site contractors doing the dirt work, they own and rent their equipment. Apart from that our housing market is still in demand, interest rates have went to 8.6% for a cash out refi. and 7.75 % for a purchase. Several neighborhoods are going in and advertising 600k plus but the houses are selling for 1 million. I don't really understand how people can afford those prices with the interest. Makes you wonder if money is getting pumped into different groups by the government. I know I have not gotten any. The truly well off people I have seen deal in real estate and rental houses. The bankers and the government is making serious money off of interest now. What I cant figure out is 3 years ago they were talking about 3% interest rates and CD's paid .5 percent. Now CDs pay 5% and the interest rate is 7.5%. IF you have money you are now getting a bigger cut, just different numbers. Those that borrow are getting hit harder. Which means they will work more and have less. The up and down cycle will repeat. But the game just resets to different numbers and the wheel will keep turning.
There is some secret squirrel type project being planned in north central AL by Turner Construction. We've been told it's a $1B project and not part of Red Stone Arsenal.
2024 financial check up time. We've been pretty busy this year, but hit a lull the last two weeks. Not "no work", just not the typical "how are we going to get everywhere" we've been having. But we typically have a lull late july/ early august. It seems odd, but its a pretty typical thing every year for us. Next week is packed, and if everything happens, I've had enough calls to keep us slammed until the end of the year. I thought the rise in interest was going to slow things down, two years ago. But it really hasn't changed things that I can tell. It seems like it is just now the "new" normal. I talked to the banker the other day, and they said "just get whatever you need", which of course means I'm not borrowing any more than I absolutely have to. Semi truck prices are coming down. I've not seen a huge drop in equipment pricing. Parts are still hard to come by for some things. Housing seems to have no end in sight, I went through a development south of Kansas City this week, with a big sign "homes from $600,000- 1 million". Moving dirt like mad.
Homes this side of state have stalled, those with decent Finances are somewhat buying to leave Ladue or Clayton, those in outlying areas are stagnating.
Where the hell is everybody getting money to buy $500-1 mill houses? I want one of those jobs
I don’t have proof but there has to be serious market manipulation going on by the feds beyond their normal crap to keep this going. And when it collapses it’s going to be really, really bad
Price increases and higher interest have slowed certain work like warehouses but it's not stopped the data center game seems to be full steam ahead but the tech is changing so fast with AI that as soon as we start the plans are being amended and then comes delays to continue Housing here is slow compared to past trends but it's not dead now multifamily is on fire and can't be kept up with We hit a real slow spot April and may and massive coordination problems on 2 jobs have really put a damper on how busy we have been over summer but as of the last 2 weeks we have been working a lot of overtime to make schedule
My brother has a 1 mil house and $3000/month daycare
Many in the Bigger St Charles County big money homes are on Fifty Year mortgages, a California style banking introduction here. Conveniently Realtor offered or Suggested, “will make a Profit as sell in Future” a common recital.
There's also interest only loans too
Here in the UK we fell into recession Oct 22 in my opinion.That’s obviously not official,but just my educated thoughts on the matter. The quarries get hit first,then the construction catches up,with many contractors only feeling the pinch this year.This was probably down to legacy work getting things done and completed. This year,the UK has seen a vast amount of rain with barley a few days going by without rain.Combine this rain with a lack of projects,and you have a lot of sweating contractors. Prices of good machinery hasn’t come down in spectacular fashion,it still sells somehow,but it’s definitely getting harder to sell bigger machinery for the big projects. A dealer I do a few days a month for is doing ok on certain Cat equipment that has long lead times on from Cat,but other stuff is stalling out such as D9,D10 tractors,777’s etc,but 775’s,D8’s are doing ok.By ok,I mean enough to comfortably pay the wages etc,but probably not enough to go on a spending spree. I also have a few domestic and commercial properties that I rent out.Ive noticed four of my tennants now reverting to paying monthly rather than yearly.This actually suits me,as it costs them more money,but it’s the sort of trend that gets me tightening my belt for winter.
HD Trucks here have slowed drastically, a few larger fleets are investing in mass repairs rather than purchase new even losing out on DOC system warranties. Most are expecting a slump as contracts come to anniversaries. Raw Cement companies stopped the major renovations so something is up they can see.
We have been in a silent depression for a couple of years now, it was easier back in the 30's than now
You have no idea what you are talking about. I guess I grew up with my grandparents having lived through the depression. Read your history. Look at the pictures. There were people lined up for soup kitchens, and when you see pictures of them old boys, they are all skinny as a rail. They couldn't afford to eat. We live in a country where one of the largest health problems is obesity. And that's worse than the '30's? My dad remembers when they got water in the house, when he was a kid. And rural electric. When I was a kid, we didn't have a lot, but we always had a house, and we always had food, and a lot of people in the '30's didn't have that.
Some actual on class 8---instead of guessing. * Sales of new Class 8 trucks remain strong but declines expected by year-end These are interesting times in the world of Class 8 truck sales. Inventory levels at dealers and body suppliers are up, and sales of New Class 8 trucks www.thetrucker.com
you asked something of people, people just won't do. 2008 was bad but no where as bad as 29 to 38. Think about that folks 9 solid years of starving. Yeah prices have been high but I haven't seen where it's put a dent in traveling--people are still bumper to bumper to get to walmart & can't wait to buy all kinds of food to make them fatter with a short stop through the mens/womens clothing to buy bigger clothes to cover themselves because of the cart full of fat they just bought. * A true reset economically is a full blown economic melt down---the population and mind set of today couldn't handle a 30's depression. ******I've posted this book before--several times actually---and I bet not one of the current 123,000 members of HEF has looked at it or read it, a true account of the Great Depression. -------------{A Nation in Torment by Edward Rob Ellis}.-----I have read no less than eleven books on the subject, this is the best one, IMO. The fact is Americans were just flat mean as hell to their fellow Americans and neighbors in many instances---such as the great riot at the wharfs in San Francisco in 34. Not many have heard about that or the torture experienced by the migration caused by the dust bowl when those Oklahomans arrived in California. Had red paint thrown on them and beat with lead filled rubber hoses. Fact. With the population at 331,000,000 today the carnage would be double. * The true test of what a human will do is when the belly button starts scrapping on the spine. *My crystal ball----we have it pretty good right now, panic and quoting bad authority is what causes desperate people. We are not even close at this time. My two cents.
I think as a society we forget what was normal 1 year ago let alone 5 years ago So if I look at my books from 5 years ago I am doing around those margins today I didn't have a price change in rates from Jan of 22 till Jan of 24 because after the initial inflation from shutdowns that's how long it took for the rest of it to show up on my ledger in 23 we where so busy that we charged a lot of premiums to jobs because of overtime and other factors my base rates stayed the same but acceleration costs that we charged nor quite doubled our magin on the job and the money was really fast Today we are making margins similar to 18 and 19 the real difference is money is slower than it's ever been for us. Times are not harder the challenges are just different I think what most outfits are starting to experience is volatility in cash flow and if your buissness is built around credit for cash reserves that can be a little scary Over 75 percent of contractors here were not in buissness in 08 they started in the vacume afterwards or later. And the legacy companies that have been here forever have sold out or been taken over by the newest generation none of these people have navigated a real recession and no one in buissness today knows what a depression looks like Everyone is starting to brace for impact as this thread shows a lot of us expected this a few years ago obviously nobody knows what's going to happen the only strategic move that eliminates risk is to get off a credit basis and move to a cash basis at least that's what we have been doing and it's not a guarantee either there is no right answer
I do not know about the US, but here bureaucracy is costing huge amounts and is only increasing, employing more and more people to regulate everyone else. I do not think that ever before has so many produced so few with so much.
If I could write what appears to be the truth I'd be banned for life on here, so I'll keep my fingers under control. Don't discount anything out of hand. The fact that the Rothschild's are quietly bailing could be a clue.
Yep experiencing the same here. Lower margins due to massive inflation and owners paying slower. This is the first year since we've started this business in 2011 that we've had to threaten a lien to get paid. I think owners and GC's are just seeing how far they can push off paying for projects and keep the cash in their money markets before they have to pay. When we threatened the above mentioned lien on a Monday we had a check Fedex'd by Thursday. This was early August for a pay app submitted in April. The old saying - "I have a deal with my banker, he doesn't move dirt and I don't lend money" goes a long way now a days.
Debt, the enemy of the average U.S. citizen is almost $67,000, the total owed is around 17.5 trillion. It hangs like a dark cloud consuming the thoughts of anyone trying to get ahead. But at the same time most don't live within their means. Plus if they didn't and suddenly only bought what they needed---the stalled economy that would ensue. It runs on credit. * I was just talking to my old employer yesterday morning--he is experiencing the same issue with the conglomerates he hauls for. A big one LW has cut his hauling lanes down by 25% plus has been pushing for 90 day on receivables instead of 30 days.
You can't compare the past with the present. My grandfather was very fortunate to have been a senior salesman for a large hardware distributor in Western Canada. He had to work hard but got a new car every year during the 30's. He became the Calgary branch manager. He came to Canada to fight for Canada in WW I. He was scheduled to be on the Titanic but couldn't make it on time. He got a meritorious service award which wasn't common. He lived to 95. Another thing that teens of today surely wouldn't do is lie about their age to join the war effort. My dad lied about his age and nobody questioned it. It was the thing to do. The average age of service men in WW II was 20 years old! 20 year olds today think they are entitled and don't know what hard work or sacrifice means.
I started my first business in 2000 and started my current business in 2007, but somehow made it through. As of right now I'm still booked up through the end of the year and bidding some jobs now for next spring. With that said, I have had a couple customers back out from planned jobs and a couple more that haven't paid. The ones that didn't pay were both small jobs for small $$$, which in some ways is even more telling. I think a lot of people are in worse financial shape than they realize.
It's cyclical--history has a way of repeating it's self--because of not learning from the past and keeping memories alive. * In many ways a guy who was 10 years old in 1929 and 21 in 1940 had a edge when WWII broke out. They grew up with next to nothing, hungry and ragged. The one thing missed by the enemy in Europe was Americans were toughened by the depression and already knew what being on the bottom was all about. So the mindset was {not here not now} Americans at that time were like a dog who had been kicked one too many times.
I wouldn't discredit today's 20 year Olds to much it would surprise you what they are capable of when someone can actually be a leader to them they have never been challenged and never been without so don't abuse them over the reality check and education that they have been hidden from
That has been my experience as well. Some of the smartest younglies didn't do Uni, are totally aware of the **** that could break out and are prepared. They still act dumb but scratching the surface a little tells a different story
Ambition--is most necessary, there are those that are quite intelligent at 20. A lack of ambition causes a waste of intelligence that even Sgt Gut Splatter can't lead them out of.----It's about self drive.
I'm sure there are some very ambitious 20 year olds. I'm also aware there are a lot of them that need to be told what to do rather than taking the bull by the horns. Don't know how many today who would sign up for military service with a 50% (if they're lucky) chance of making it to their next birthday.
As far as serving in todays military I'm darn sure I wouldn't either under the current lack of leadership in the ADF. I was on a compactor at a dump site and trucks with trailers were carting broken up concrete with heaps of reo in it so it was imperative for everyone that it was dumped as close to the face as possible but most of drivers were Asian and couldn't drive a nail straight, even struggled dumping in the same post code. Anyway a young fella came and was getting tangled up. I got off the machine and had a chat with him, he had been pulling semi's, never backed a dog trailer and was getting frustrated. Settled him down and explained how to. In 3 loads delivered he had got the hang of it and was better than all the rest combined. Most times having a quiet chat for a few minutes beats a day of belly aching
Unfortunately there are too many who grew up on video games and don't know what hard work is.
C.O.'s thread kinda took a turn, but from post #150 to #155 this tune explains it better. *
Too much screen time is really bad for children and adolescents. It has serious long term effects on their mental development. My children have strict limits as to how much time the grandchildren can spend on their tablets. Some parents see screens as good babysitters.
I was in Farm Bureau the other day paying my insurance and there was an older couple there with an infant (grandchild I assume). He was about a year old give or take, still small enough to be in a rear facing car seat/baby carrier and sucking a pacifier. He was playing on one of their smart phones, clicking things with his thumbs and swiping left and right. The ladies in the office thought it was cute, I was horrified, thinking *** has our society come to....
On a slightly different note to the thread….. Debt….I prefere those who can’t pay than those that don’t pay.
Future---Millennials will gain the most value with Boomers going extinct. Estimated value 76 trillion, last boomer standing 2086, one dies every 14.8 seconds, life expectancy dropped in the last 10 years for boomers, average age for boomer 76. Buzzards are circling.
You lose ambition when you see the deadshits, grifters and wasters of society being the government mandated winners, while at the same time the government stomping on the heads of industry that created the wealth of society because they are no longer flavour of the month. I know a fellow who works for a multinational company, at this facility he left. He said the company had let the wasters and slackers get away with doing SFA, that eventually the motivated people who were covering for them, decided to go the same way. Meanwhile the same company is busy promoting their favourite ESG agenda and getting taxpayer handouts. Western society needs a kick up the arse.
If one lets himself lose ambition because of others actions---that person needs to review his own self respect. Self respect is everything rolled into one. * One thing I can add I always remembered that my dad said and he & I got along like cats and dogs. {Never pattern after someone else pattern after yourself, don't follow others over a cliff just because that's where they are headed}.
Your friend did it right by walking away and finding something else instead of joining the bottom dwellers.
Lemmings......
These outfits are looking into their crystal ball, don't look good 315K views · 3.3K reactions | 4 Farming Equipment Companies In Financial Trouble (2024) #farmlife #johndeere #johndeerearmy #cnh #tractor | Heavysteelmarvel | Heavysteelmarvel · Original audio 4 Farming Equipment Companies In Financial Trouble (2024) #farmlife #johndeere #johndeerearmy #cnh #tractor. Heavysteelmarvel · Original audio www.facebook.com
The price of fuel/chemicals/fertilizer/seed.
Those are not the major players on the grand scheme of things. Yes, they are costs that have definitely risen, but not like everything else, and nowhere even close to the price of new/late model iron, and parts/service. To get to the heart of the matter, you have to look at the whole culture. For 40 years, you've always had those guys that are perpetually sitting on plastic-covered seats. There used to be more, but they are still there. Then, you have the guys that buy those plastic-covered seats. Finally, you have everyone else. The guys that buy the 1-2-3 year old machines are, for the most part, the major hiccup in this equation. They are the ones that keep the chain moving. Without them, there is no market for a machine that barely has the nubs worn off the tires. And if they aren't buying, the little guys that buy a 5-6-7 year old machine to run for the next 20 years certainly aren't buying. So, you have a market that's flooded with 2-3-4 year old machines, and now the dealers are having a fire sale to stop the bleeding. The next couple years are going to be a challenge.
Correct--because those costs are figured into yield, which if below average can be covered with crop insurance.
1 year old super sized (X9) deere combines are selling for about 1/3 new price with 200-300 hours. That worked out to about $1700/separator hour. That 2nd tier buyer is holding on to his money.
Exactly. The three big brands have overplayed their hands, and now are suffering the consequences. Unfortunately, the buyers are going to be the ones to feel the pain, whether it be increased purchase prices on parts or service, or downtime due to broken down machinery that they're trying to make go another season.
Life of a bine depends on how much dirt has been run through it each season. I should have Dwight my farmer friend comment on this thread, fourth generation wheat farmer. Many around here run 25 plus year old bines.
Rice is about the most abrasive common grain harvested. Around here soybeans grown on sandy soils are about the worst. I had an elevator man tell me 50,000 of beans grown in the river valley would wear out equipment that would handle 250,000 bushel of corn without problems. Some wear parts start needing replacement at about 1,000,000 bu corn. By 5,000,000 bu. most wear parts have been replaced twice, and non replaceable parts are wearing patches. Engine has 2500 hours, so still strong. Hydrostatic system still like new. Electric wires and hydraulic pipes and hoses chafe, wear through, and break. Sheet metal parts that vibrate have spider cracks.
x2 on the soybeans. We've replaced a lot of steel over the years because of soybeans. They're almost ready to start cutting again.
Wonder if it’s time to bump this thread? Much has changed or the potential to change with the new administration coming on board. I’m currently engaged in strategic planning and have a few questions for the smart kids. With talk about potential tariffs, and considering continued inflation, where will truck part pricing be in 25? Especially, since so much comes from Mexico and China. I was considering a large consumable parts purchase and shiny new shop equipment before year end to avoid the price increases. On the other hand, the homeless guy who sells weed at the Trunk Road round-about, recommends to take all my spare capitol and start an LLC brokerage account and either buy household names OR broad sector ETFs that have growth potential...... Then, any earnings could be retained in the LLC, take a fair salary, and take what you want in "distributions" from the fund. He thinks certain sectors and names will be like rockets it’ll make or break a generation. Your thoughts?
I think if you have a use for it, get it. If you can find a price cut even better. I manage several rental properties and I normally buy appliances a year or more ahead of time when the homedepot black Friday sale is happening. For the normal price of a refrigerator you get a whole house worth of stuff. I have been thinking a lot about under carraige prices lately.
Sounds like you don't have enough to do that you can sit around and talk markets with a druggie...
Lol
I quit buying appliances from the big box stores years ago, and no regrets. I believe completely that the quality of appliance at a legit store is twice that of a Lowes/Home Depot/Menards, and I have several friends that have experienced it also.
I doubt it. I have removed and repaired enough of the stuff, to know. I would ask you what brand you bought. Lowes and home depot sell about all there is in the lower priced items. Most of the time tenants abuse and ruin it before it breaks. So it definitely serves it's purpose. I have bought used takeouts removed from apartments in Atlanta. When they remodel. Takeouts never last and are a waste.
Maytag, Whirlpool, Frigidaire, LG, Bosch. When I was younger and broker, all I could afford was Menards or Home Depot. After 3 different sets of washer and dryer, I went to an actual appliance store that is certified to do warranty work, instead of send it back to the manufacturer. The cost is about double, sometimes more than the same thing at a Menards. All I know is that we're one the same set now for 6 years, and never got 3 out of anything previous. My friends have experienced the same. Maybe it's a regional thing?
I was cleaning out the refrigerator that came with our house we bought 20 years ago. I found a sticker inside with the date of manufacture 09/94.
We bought a small USED apartment size refrigerator when we moved into our unfinished house in 1970. When the kitchen was finished it was retired to the basement where it is still in use today. I don't know when it was made but it was one of the best $50 we ever spent. d.d.
With new refrigerators it seems to be mostly ice dispenser problems or them icing up and leaking on the floors. We typically put real hardwoods in the whole house except bathrooms. So kitchen water sometimes causes us issues. We do not provide refrigerators to renters. Learned that over time. Typically they break the glass cook tops on glass top stoves, microwaves get used so much they stop working within 2 years. And dishwashers start to stink and get greasy or are generally just nasty within 3 to 4 years. Constant cycle of remove replace. Gas stove inigitors stop working and get replaced. Computer boards go out in Mayfield stoves. Door springs and cables snap and plastic dishwasher rack wheels fall off and break. Depending on the tenant relationship we will use the cheapest new thing sold or by a stainless up grade for a good longer term tenant.
With our rentals: small, 18 cu ft fridges with no ice makers: always have dirty coils and often ice over as freezer is stuffed full with stuff packed against circulating fan. If they move out without notice food is always left in them with no power. plain coil stoves with no electronics. The german cockroaches eat electronics and glass tops will get broken no dishwashers or microwaves provided I remove any sheds on properties we buy. They will all be full of crap when a tenant moves out. A/C filters are never serviced. I have to replace and clean coils between tenants. Apparently kitchen sink drains are the go to storage place for cooking grease. I have no faith in humanity any more.
My current fridge is a Kenmore as well as washer/dryer/microwave all vintage late 90's. Fridge 9/98 just replaced thermostat last month, still freezes ice cream on lower setting. Solid as Sears baby. Just replaced 1991 Kenmore stove in august with $650 Amana gas range, price and stove top is awesome but oven cycles/ignites every minute or so, click-voof, click-voof, annoying as hell. Luckily warranty issue, appliance repair guy coming out 12/6 to tell me it's supposed to work like that and annoy me.
Thats how mine works! and charge you for a service call
Besides refrigerators, what is everyone’s perspectives on the potential for tariffs? Crazy talk, network news shenanigans, or serious potential? What will happen to STE-THERESE, Que built Kenworths? Is that going to drive inflation to the moon, along with the stonk market? S&P 500 over 6000 today? The implications are interesting to contemplate. Whats a girl to do? I’ve got about $87 in my checking account. With that kind of liquidity, I need to be strategic. For example, I’m not hosting my company annual holiday, Grand Wailea Maui shareholder meeting this year. I think we’ll hit the Wasilla IHOP, instead. There are free ducks in the parking lot.
I heard Alaska does not have inflation.. doesn't take 6 months to ship something there. You don't need to worry about it till next summer. Lol
I think all the tariff talk, is just talk. Kenworths built in canada. Freightliners built in Mexico. GM and Dodge pickups are mostly built in mexico, and have been for quite a while. There's a lot of automobile and supplier plants that have moved down there. There will be loopholes for just about everything, so it "looks good" but doesn't change anything. As soon as the retailers start howling about the cost increases, for all their Chinese crap, it will put the brakes on all the tariff talk. Lowe's won't be able to sell you a refrigerator, and walmart would have to jack prices on tv's. So more "loopholes". That said, the new normal is price increases on everything, every year, no matter what. So I'll continue to buy what I need when I need it, and hopefully work out how to pay for it somehow (by raising my own rates for work). Uncle Sam will keep printing money and kick the can down the road on fiscal responsibility. No one wants to be in charge, when the benefits get reduced, or the economy stumbles, so the printing presses keep rolling. We won't see a "reset" like 2008 until there is no other path, except total meltdown. Too many bankers and financers got burned back then, and they will tug uncle sam into any bailouts needed. We had everyone not "critical" stay home for a year for the flu a while back, and that didn't make a recession. So a change in DC isn't going to mean much in the sticks. I'm pretty jaded about DC having much impact on any little guys, I don't think either party gives two hoots about anything except being re elected, and lining their own pockets. That said, I'm looking at buying another crane, because spending money now= more work later, and with inflation, its cheaper to buy it today. Why wait? A crane I bought 4 years ago at looks pretty cheap to the inflation adjusted price I pay today.
A plant in Mexicali.
Another crane, eh that's a tax write off with a depreciation formula for however long.
Thanks for the thoughtful post, Crane Operator. I also think the money printer will keep going burrrrrrr, the next four years, at least.
There is a huge problem with the currency printer. It won't be able to keep pace with all the greenbacks coming home from overseas. The USD has lost its reserve status. The BRICS countries have figured out how to settle international trade without it. Now they don not need reserves of USD, so they will all come home to roost. I mean coming home by the boatload. Think cargo ships with container loads of $100's. Inflation is the new norm with hyperinflation and currency crash looming. The upside is we can pay our debt down with $100's that cost us $0.10. The downside is we won't be able to borrow money. US Treasuries will be worthless to investors. Only the FED will buy them and that whole deal is smoke and mirrors. Who is the figurehead makes little difference.
Alberta is wondering if the tariffs will apply to oil and gas exports to the US. If so it will increase the price. A lot of electric power and water goes to the states in eastern Canada as well. The tariffs apply to the companies exporting not direct consumers and it's highly unlikely the they're going to eat the increases. As far as illegal drugs crossing the border it is much bigger problem with Mexico than Canada. I saw a comparison and I think what comes from Mexico in a month is about what comes from Canada in a year. Alberta alone does $166B/yr. in exports to the US.
And that’s what we appreciates about you. I love ‘Berta oil as much as I love ‘Berta beef. 1 inch thick ‘berta beef...salt and pepper heavily...grill at 400....4 minutes total....flip each minute to get good grill marks....let it sit for 2 minutes....down the hatch. S&P is the choice for me.
Government needs a good colon cleansing on both sides of the isle. Until that happens, nothing will change. I'm very optimistic of the short-term future...........it has got to be better than the last few years. You either work to live or you live to work. In the grand scheme of things.....whats the difference?
a friend of mine explained it to me this way. Nuclear submarines back the dollar...
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-bans-exports-gallium-other-102308172.html I do think we are in trouble. These people running our country are really screwing the workers over. Trade wars and tariffs are bad news. The government is taxing us more. They completely screwed the metal building prices, and the first round of tariffs trump passed are still hitting aluminum and steel. Metal has not come back down. We are not making it here. How can workers here compete with people that are forced to work like they do in China. We can not. The world was moving to a great global economy and prices and making money were the best I have ever seen in my lifetime, just before covid. Tariffs and mouth breathing and then .. china unleashed covid in response to trump. It was planned. Then the free hand outs, fake vaccines and lying, constant lying. Calling tariffs inflation... bullchit. Lyes and more taxes on us. More are on the way. We are broke according to Musk and the talking heads. All this talk about factories and more manufacturering here.... robots will be doing the work. With AI. I personally believe us little guys are about to really get screwed hard. I wish I knew the answer on how to protect the dollars I make which represent my labor. Property prices, taxes, trucks prices food prices, concrete prices, metal are the highest they have ever been. Forcing us to work more just to maintain. This is the way..
"In 2024, global debt is projected to be $315 trillion, with global public debt exceeding $100 trillion." That is according to the IMF. The World Bank, GAO and the CIA world fact book, offer similar numbers. With this level of debt there are no corrections left to correct. The big market correction, whatever that looks like, honestly should happen. Meanwhile, business goes forward. I too, wonder how to protect my dollar from the inevitable. What does that even look like? No debt, modest life style, hard assets and a 5 acre homestead in the stix?
This is where Im sitting right now. I'm just not far enough out in the sticks.......yet.
Have Bullets and extra Arms on that list too. Series of situations are replicating the 1920s prior to the Big Dump, Russia just went Belly Up for all practical Purposes, Ruble is NOT worth a US Penny currently. BOAT Loads to buy weeks worth of Foods.
I bought a new chevrolet in 1989, it was a terrible car. I learned then what buyers remorse was all about.
I'd be a lot better off if I hadn't bought most of the stuff I have. At least the land went up in value.
They must broadcast lettet kenny in alaska
Can relate Chevys’ from 77,79,81, all rust buckets and oil consumers, Moved to Ford no better but ran longer
It ain't who runs better anymore, it's who produces the most so you can get parts still long after they are off the shelf.
That’s a Texas size 10-4
No thanks. I like my beef rare, not looking at me. 4 minutes per side for me.
There was some kind of big event years ago in Alberta where the organizers tried to pass off imported less expensive beef than Alberta beef as Alberta beef. I think it was a rodeo or something but when people found out they were livid. So many complaints about the poor quality beef that they did a complete 180 and got Alberta beef. Alberta isn't only known for oil.
Bleedin and almost mooin here!!
Still remember the Jim Garner movie about Oil Drillers where he demanded it be burnt to crunchy!! Cannot handle that.
Yes!
May as well chew on an old boot. Never understood ruining good hunk of meat.
I found this newspaper clipping in a building I used to work in. Almost 7900% increase in value since June 1967.
In other words, knock off the horns wipe it's arse and put it on the plate.
Pittsburgh style for me. Burned on the outside, still mooing in the middle. So named for the steel mill workers who would cook their steak on the glowing steel slabs.
Was in town to have my chiclets cleaned today, stopped at the grocery, porterhouse on sale (use today or freeze deal) was going to be a grill night but 25 degrees and 20mph winds, cast iron it is and will be damn near mooin'.
People should wait till all meat has a slightly green tint and in the mark down bin.
What he say ? Joe H
Oh no that's {what'd I say}. *
Not green just well aged. Every wednesday all previous weeks chunks go on sale, still plenty fresh for this carnivore.
I'm not surprised by the growth, but I am surprised the assessed value decreased $23,000 from last year to this year.